Published 9 July 2026. Analysis and predictions are our opinion,
not a guarantee of anything. 18+, please gamble responsibly.
France and Morocco meet again on Thursday night in Foxborough, three and a half years after their 2022 semi-final in Qatar. The prize this time is a semi-final in Dallas on 14 July against Spain or Belgium. Kick-off is 9pm UK time.
The bookmakers make France clear favourites at around 4/7, with Morocco out at 5/1 and bigger. On the run both teams have had, that gap is understandable. Whether it is quite fair to Morocco is the more interesting question.
The case for France
France have been the most complete team in the tournament. Five games, five wins, 14 goals scored and only 2 conceded. Kylian Mbappé has 7 of those goals in five matches, and Ousmane Dembélé has added 4 more. No other side left in the draw has a front line producing at that rate.
The one caveat is the last-16 win over Paraguay. France had 76% of the ball and a pile of shots, yet needed a 70th-minute Mbappé penalty to get through 1-0. A packed defence slowed them down for long spells. Morocco will have watched that closely, because a packed defence is exactly what they are good at.
The case for Morocco
Morocco are the last African side standing, and they have earned their place the hard way. They knocked out the Netherlands on penalties in the round of 32, rescuing the tie with an Issa Diop header deep in stoppage time before Yassine Bounou made the decisive save in the shootout. Then they took Canada apart 3-0 in the last 16, with Azzedine Ounahi scoring twice.
The bad news is the injury list. Ismael Saibari, who scored in all three group games and struck the winning penalty against the Dutch, is out with a hamstring problem. Losing your form attacker before facing the tournament favourites is a brutal piece of timing.
There is also history here. France have never lost to Morocco: four wins and two draws in six meetings, including that 2-0 semi-final in 2022. Morocco pushed France hard that night without breaking through, and this squad is arguably stronger than the 2022 one.
What looks the smart angle
Our view: France should win, but 4/7 is a short price against the best-organised defensive side left in the tournament. Morocco have conceded twice in five games themselves, held a strong Dutch team for 120 minutes, and France just spent 90 minutes failing to break down a deep block until a penalty rescued them.
The draw at 3/1 with Betfred (90 minutes only) looks the value if you want an alternative to the favourite, and a Morocco win in 90 minutes pays 11/2 at Paddy Power. If you do fancy France, the 13/20 at Unibet beats the field on the win market, though Mbappé-based angles (scorer markets, France to win both halves) are where most of the bookmaker pricing looks tightest.
That is analysis, not a promise. Quarter-finals between well-drilled sides are decided by fine margins, and a single set piece or penalty call can flip this one either way.
Elsewhere today
Three more quarter-finals follow over the next three days: Spain v Belgium on Friday night (8pm UK), then Norway v England late on Saturday (10pm UK), and Argentina v Switzerland in the early hours of Sunday (2am UK). England fans get the standout tie of the round; Norway’s Erling Haaland against England’s defence is the individual battle of the tournament so far. We will preview the biggest of them each day.
