Published 10 July 2026. Analysis and predictions are our opinion,
not a guarantee of anything. 18+, please gamble responsibly.
Spain and Belgium meet at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood on Friday night, with a semi-final against France or Morocco in Dallas next Tuesday waiting for the winner. Kick-off is 8pm UK time.
The bookmakers make Spain clear favourites at around 3/5, with Belgium out at 4/1 to 9/2 depending on the firm. Spain have not conceded a single goal all tournament. Belgium have scored eight in three knockout-adjacent games. Something has to give.
The case for Spain
Luis de la Fuente’s side have been the tightest defensive unit left in the draw. Four wins from five, a perfect clean-sheet record, and a route through Group H that included wins over Saudi Arabia (4-0) and Uruguay before a 3-0 dismantling of Austria in the round of 32. The last-16 game against Portugal was tighter: Mikel Merino came off the bench to head the only goal in the closing minutes at Dallas Stadium, avenging last year’s Nations League final defeat to the same opponents.
Rodri captains a midfield built to control matches rather than chase them, and Spain’s whole approach depends on denying opponents the ball. Against Belgium’s counter-attacking threat, that control matters more than usual.
The squad is fully fit, which is not something every quarter-finalist can say at this stage of a tournament.
The case for Belgium
Belgium topped Group G and have scored freely since, beating Senegal 3-2 in the last 32 before a 4-1 win over the USA in the round of 16, Charles De Ketelaere scoring twice and Hans Vanaken adding a third. That is the most eye-catching knockout-stage scoreline of any side left in the competition.
The injury list works against them, though. Amadou Onana suffered an ACL injury in training this week and is out, leaving a hole in central midfield. Zeno Debast, meant to be first-choice at centre-back, has not featured yet through a separate leg problem. Kevin De Bruyne has been substituted in every one of Belgium’s first four matches, managing his minutes, and it remains to be seen whether he starts or is held in reserve again.
History is not on Belgium’s side either. Spain have won 12 of the 22 meetings between the sides, and seven of the last eight, with an aggregate score of 13-1 across every 21st-century clash. Belgium’s only World Cup win over Spain came via a 1986 penalty shootout, four decades ago.
What looks the smart angle
Our view: Spain should win, and 3/5 reflects a defence that has not been breached in five matches against an opponent missing a first-choice midfielder and a first-choice centre-back. The case for taking a price is thinner here than in most quarter-finals.
If you want an alternative to laying odds-on, Belgium at 9/2 with Betfred, Paddy Power, Betway, Unibet or Sky Bet pays out if De Ketelaere and Vanaken carry their knockout-stage form into a bigger stage. The draw sits around 3/1 with Betfred, Coral, Unibet or Sky Bet for those who think Spain’s control style stalls without a clinical edge in front of goal, something that was true for most of the Portugal game before Merino’s late intervention.
That is analysis, not a promise. Belgium have shown they can score in bursts against nervous defences, and a patched-up midfield is not the same as a beaten one.
Elsewhere today
Two more quarter-finals follow this weekend: Norway v England on Saturday night (10pm UK), and Argentina v Switzerland in the early hours of Sunday (2am UK). Erling Haaland against England’s defence is the individual battle most people are talking about, while Argentina go in as favourites against a Swiss side that has overachieved to reach this stage. We will preview the biggest of the remaining ties tomorrow.
