Published 11 July 2026. Analysis and predictions are our opinion,
not a guarantee of anything. 18+, please gamble responsibly.
Norway and England meet for the first time in a major tournament on Saturday night in Miami, with a semi-final against Argentina or Switzerland waiting for the winner. Kick-off at Hard Rock Stadium is 10pm UK time.
The bookmakers make England clear favourites at around 4/5, with Norway out at 3/1 and the draw priced up at 11/4 with Betfred. Given what both sides have produced to reach this stage, that gap looks fair, but not enormous.
The case for England
England topped Group L ahead of Croatia, Ghana and Panama, then found two different ways to win a knockout tie. They trailed Congo DR before Harry Kane scored twice late on to get through 2-1, then went 3-2 up on co-hosts Mexico thanks to a Jude Bellingham brace and held out under pressure. Kane has six goals in the tournament and the Kane-Bellingham axis has carried Thomas Tuchel’s side through two different kinds of test: one where they needed a rescue act, one where they needed to see a game out.
The team news has turned in England’s favour this week. Jarell Quansah is suspended after his red card against Mexico, but Reece James has returned to training and is expected to be fit enough to feature at right-back, easing a defensive selection headache. Declan Rice missed a session with a sickness bug but that is understood to have cleared up.
The case for Norway
Norway are in their first ever World Cup quarter-final, and they have got there by beating a five-time champion. After finishing runners-up to France in Group I, they edged Côte d’Ivoire with a late Erling Haaland winner in the round of 32, then put out Brazil in the last 16 with Haaland scoring twice. He now has seven goals in four games and is in the running for the Golden Boot alongside Kylian Mbappé and Lionel Messi.
The obvious risk with Norway is how much of their threat runs through one player. Ståle Solbakken’s side have managed a sickness bug moving through the squad this week, though the team doctor says the group is healthy again heading into Saturday. Historically this fixture has been one-sided: England have won seven of the last 12 meetings, lost two, and Norway’s last win over England came in 1993. In four meetings since 2012, Norway have failed to score at all.
What looks the smart angle
Our view: England should go through, and 4/5 with Betway or Sky Bet is a fair reflection of a side that has found a way to win from two different match states already. Norway’s route to the quarter-final says more about Haaland’s individual quality than the team’s overall control of games, and shutting down one player, however good, is a more manageable job than nullifying a Bellingham-Kane partnership plus a settled back line.
That said, 3/1 with Betway, Sky Bet, Paddy Power or Unibet on Norway is not a stingy price for a team that has already knocked out Brazil, and the draw at 11/4 with Betfred is short enough to have some appeal if you expect a cagey, low-event game between two well-organised sides. This is analysis and opinion, not a prediction of the result, and quarter-finals at this level are frequently settled by one moment either way.
Elsewhere today
The other quarter-final on Saturday is a heavyweight one too: Argentina face Switzerland at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City in the early hours of Sunday morning UK time. Messi’s side have scored 14 goals in the tournament, level with France for the most of any team left, but they have needed extra time and late comebacks to get past Cape Verde and Egypt. Switzerland have conceded only three goals all tournament and are into their first quarter-final since 1954. Whoever wins this weekend’s ties meets in Tuesday’s semi-final.
