Published 13 July 2026. Updated 14 July 2026. Analysis and predictions are our opinion,
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France and Spain meet in a World Cup semi-final for the third tournament running, this time with a place in Saturday’s final at Miami Gardens on the line. Kick-off at AT&T Stadium in Arlington is 8pm UK time on Tuesday, Bastille Day in France.
The bookmakers make France clear favourites at 13/10, with Spain out to 9/4 with Ladbrokes and the draw as big as 12/5 with Betfred, or 23/10 with William Hill and Unibet. Given how differently these two sides have won so far, that gap looks earned but not overwhelming.
The case for France
France have not dropped a point all tournament, six wins from six, and they have not conceded a single goal in the knockout rounds. Sweden were brushed aside 3-0 in the round of 32, Paraguay shut out 1-0 in the round of 16, and Morocco beaten 2-0 in the quarter-final. Kylian Mbappé leads the race for the Golden Boot with eight goals and three assists, Ousmane Dembélé has five goals of his own, and Michael Olise has quietly racked up five assists in his first World Cup. Didier Deschamps has a team that can win games in more than one way, and a defence that has not been properly tested since the group stage.
The one asterisk is that France’s knockout form has come against sides who could not lay a glove on them going forward. Spain will ask a sharper question of that back line than Sweden, Paraguay or Morocco managed.
The case for Spain
Spain are into their first World Cup semi-final since they lifted the trophy in 2010, and they got there the hard way. Before Friday’s quarter-final they had gone six straight matches without conceding, the longest run of its kind in World Cup history, before Charles De Ketelaere’s header pulled Belgium level. Fabián Ruiz had put La Roja ahead from a rebound, and Mikel Merino settled it in the 86th minute after backup goalkeeper Senne Lammens spilled a save, Thibaut Courtois having gone off injured on 71 minutes. Spain otherwise look to have no fresh injury concerns heading into Arlington.
Lamine Yamal has looked sharper with every game since returning from injury in the group stage, and he now goes up against his Paris Saint-Germain rival Mbappé on the biggest stage either has played on. Mikel Oyarzabal has four goals and Marc Cucurella two assists, but Spain’s attacking output has been less consistent than France’s, leaning more on defensive control to get through the draw so far.
Historically this fixture favours Spain, who lead the head-to-head 18 wins to 13 with seven draws across 38 meetings, and won the two sides’ most recent encounter 5-4 in last year’s Nations League semi-final. At World Cup level, though, the pair have met only once, France winning 3-1 in the last 16 back in 2006.
What looks the smart angle
Opta’s model gives France a 42.1% chance of winning inside 90 minutes against 31.8% for Spain, with roughly a quarter chance of the tie going to extra time, and 13/10 with any of the major firms is a reasonable reflection of that gap for a team that has been the most complete side in the tournament so far. France’s knockout defence has had an easy ride, though, and Spain have not lost a competitive match to anyone outside this exact opponent in some time.
9/4 with Ladbrokes on Spain is a fair price given how they matched up with France in that 5-4 Nations League shootout last year, and 23/10 on the draw with William Hill or Unibet has some appeal too, bigger still at 12/5 with Betfred, if Yamal can drag Spain back into the kind of open, end-to-end game that produced nine goals between these two sides last time out. This is analysis and opinion rather than a prediction, and a match of this magnitude is as likely to be settled by one refereeing call or one moment of quality as it is by the underlying form.
Elsewhere today
The second semi-final follows on Wednesday, when England face Argentina at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta for the other final spot. England reached this stage by beating Norway on Saturday, while Argentina, unbeaten in the knockouts and level with France on goals scored, come into the tie as slight underdogs against Thomas Tuchel’s side in the early odds.
