Published 13 July 2026. Analysis and predictions are our opinion,
not a guarantee of anything. 18+, please gamble responsibly.
England and Argentina meet in a World Cup semi-final on Wednesday night, with the winner facing France or Spain in Saturday’s final at Miami Gardens. Kick-off at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta is 8pm UK time.
The bookmakers make this the tightest semi-final of the two, with England around 8/5, Argentina 19/10 and the draw 19/10 with William Hill. Betfred goes 21/10 the draw, the biggest number on the board among the major firms. Little separates the two sides on paper, and the odds reflect that.
The case for England
England reached the last four by beating Norway 2-1 on Saturday, Harry Kane converting a second-half penalty to take his tournament tally to seven, one behind Kylian Mbappé’s overall lead, with Jude Bellingham again involved in the build-up. It is the third different way Thomas Tuchel’s side have won a knockout game: a rescue act against Congo DR, a game they had to see out against Mexico, and now a tie settled from the spot.
Reece James is back in full training after the ankle knock that threatened his involvement against Norway and should start at right-back. Jarell Quansah’s suspension has expired, restoring a defensive option Tuchel was without for the quarter-final. The main concern is fatigue: England have now played four knockout matches in quick succession across three US time zones, more travel than any other side left in the tournament.
The case for Argentina
Argentina needed extra time again to see off Switzerland 2-1 in Sunday’s quarter-final, Lionel Messi scoring twice to take his own tally to six for the tournament and Argentina’s team total to 16, level with France for the most of any side left in the draw. It is the third straight knockout match Argentina have needed extra time or a late goal to win, after Cape Verde and Egypt earlier in the competition, and that pattern is now a genuine talking point around the squad.
Messi has looked sharper physically than at any point since the group stage, and at 38 this is very likely his last World Cup appearance. Nicolás Otamendi is a doubt after going off with cramp against Switzerland but is expected to be assessed on the day; if he is unavailable, Cristian Romero would move into the middle of a back three. Argentina have conceded in every knockout match so far, which is where England’s attack will look to make its case.
Historically this is one of football’s fiercest rivalries. Diego Maradona’s Argentina won 2-1 in the 1986 quarter-final in Mexico City, and the two sides met again in the 1998 last 16, a 2-2 draw settled on penalties after David Beckham’s red card. England won the last World Cup meeting, 1-0 at the 2002 group stage through a Michael Owen-won David Beckham penalty. Away from the World Cup, England have the better record in recent friendlies, but neither side has faced the other competitively since 2002.
What looks the smart angle
Our view: this is as close to a coin flip as the last four will produce. England have the more settled defence and home advantage in everything but name, given the scale of the England travelling support in Atlanta, but Argentina have Messi playing some of his best football of the tournament at exactly the moment it matters most. 8/5 with William Hill on England is not generous given how even this looks, and Coral, Paddy Power or Unibet at 2/1 on Argentina looks the more interesting price of the two outright options.
The draw at 21/10 with Betfred has some appeal too. Both sides have needed extra time or late goals to win their last two knockout matches between them, and a cagey, low-event 90 minutes fits the recent pattern for both teams better than an open game would. This is analysis and opinion rather than a prediction, and a match with this much riding on it is just as likely to turn on one moment of quality or one refereeing call.
Elsewhere today
Tuesday’s other semi-final between France and Spain will already be decided by the time this one kicks off, with the winner waiting in Saturday’s final at Miami Gardens. The Golden Boot race stays open regardless of Wednesday’s result: Mbappé leads on eight, with Kane on seven and Messi on six among the players who could still add to their tally before the tournament ends.
