Published 16 July 2026. Updated 18 July 2026. Analysis and predictions are our opinion,
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France and England meet for the bronze medal on Saturday, both sides still coming to terms with how their tournament ended. France lost 2-0 to Spain on Tuesday, and England were beaten 2-1 by Argentina a day later after Anthony Gordon’s 55th-minute goal was cancelled out twice in the final six minutes. Kick-off at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens is 10pm UK time.
William Hill has France at 17/20 to win it, England out at 27/10, and the draw at 13/5. BetVictor goes biggest on the draw at 3/1. Third-place play-offs rarely draw a tight book, and this one is no different: France go off strong favourites despite losing their last game, mostly on the strength of what they did to get there.
The case for France
Didier Deschamps’ side won all six of their matches before the semi-final, scoring 16 and conceding just twice, the best defensive and attacking record left in the tournament heading into the last four. Kylian Mbappé’s eight goals and three assists have kept him level at the top of the Golden Boot with Lionel Messi, and Michael Olise’s five assists are the most of any player in the competition. Spain simply had the better night on Tuesday, but the underlying numbers still point to the strongest squad of the four semi-finalists.
The question is motivation. This is Deschamps’ third straight World Cup involving France in the final four, and the first time in that run they will finish outside the top two. Reports out of the French camp suggest he is likely to rotate, with some of the front line who have carried a heavy load since the group stage in line for a rest. If France send out a weakened XI, the pre-match price looks short.
The case for England
Thomas Tuchel’s side arrive with the rawer wound. Harry Kane and Jude Bellingham have each scored six goals and set up another, both recording two braces apiece in the knockout rounds, and England went unbeaten in five matches before Wednesday’s collapse. Argentina’s late double, both goals made by Messi, ended the run in the cruellest possible way, and the mood around the squad afterwards was one of frustration rather than resignation.
Third-place play-offs have a habit of exposing exactly that kind of hangover, in both directions: some teams use the game to make a point, others go through the motions. Reece James and Jarell Quansah both played the full 90 against Argentina and should be available, though Tuchel has not confirmed whether he will field a strong side for a match neither camp wanted to be playing in.
France and England have met at two of the last three World Cups, both times in France’s favour. Their 2022 quarter-final finished 2-1 to France, Kane’s converted penalty cancelled out by two second-half goals before he missed a second spot-kick that would have levelled it. England have not beaten France at a World Cup since 1982.
What looks the smart angle
Our view: this is a genuine coin-flip dressed up as a France favourite. The head-to-head history and squad depth point one way, the freshness of England’s semi-final exit and the uncertainty over how seriously either manager treats a bronze medal point the other. William Hill’s 17/20 on France is short enough that England at 27/10 with Betfred, or the draw at 3/1 with BetVictor, both look like the more interesting numbers on the board. This is analysis and opinion, not a prediction, and third-place matches have a well-earned reputation for producing exactly the kind of result the form line does not suggest.
Elsewhere today
Attention starts shifting to Sunday’s final at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey, where Spain face Argentina for the trophy. The Golden Boot picture stays alive too: Mbappé and Messi are both on eight goals, and Saturday’s game in Miami is Mbappé’s last chance to move ahead outright before the tournament closes.
