Published 17 July 2026. Updated 19 July 2026. Analysis and predictions are our opinion,
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Spain and Argentina meet in the World Cup final on Sunday, with the trophy going to New Jersey for the first time. Kick-off at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford is 3pm local time, 8pm in the UK.
William Hill has Spain at 5/4 to win the tournament outright, Argentina out at 9/4, and the draw at 2/1. Paddy Power and Unibet both go bigger on Argentina at 13/5. Spain start favourites on the back of the most convincing run of any side left in the competition, but a final carries its own pressures that the group stage and early rounds do not.
The case for Spain
Luis de la Fuente’s side have conceded once in seven matches all tournament, a defensive record no other team left in the draw can match, and they beat France 2-0 in Tuesday’s semi-final to book their place in a first final since they won the trophy in 2010. Mikel Oyarzabal has taken his tally to five goals, and Lamine Yamal, still only 19, has grown into the tournament with every round since returning from an early injury. Yamal picked up a knock late against France and was seen limping at the final whistle, but has no fresh fitness concern and is expected to start.
Pedro Porro scored against France but reported a muscular issue afterwards; he is still likely to be fit enough to feature at right wing-back. Spain’s route has not been flawless, they needed a stoppage-time Mikel Merino goal to see off Belgium in the quarter-final after Thibaut Courtois went off injured, but the general pattern all summer has been control rather than survival.
The case for Argentina
Lionel Scaloni’s side are defending the title they won in Qatar, and they got here the hard way: extra time was needed in two of their last three knockout games, most recently a 2-1 win over England in which Lionel Messi scored both goals. That takes his tournament total to eight, level with Kylian Mbappé heading into Saturday’s third-place play-off in Miami, where Mbappé has one more chance to move ahead of him before the final kicks off.
Fatigue is the bigger concern than any single fitness issue. Cristian Romero has been troubled by cramp in each of the last two rounds but has finished every game, and Leandro Paredes was substituted in the 64th minute against England after a knock the previous week, with his involvement from the start still not confirmed. Scaloni’s group have played more added time than anyone left in the tournament, and it shows in the way each round has gone right to the wire.
At 38, this is very likely Messi’s last World Cup appearance, and a second winner’s medal four years after Qatar would put him alongside a small group of players to lift the trophy twice as the team’s talisman.
What looks the smart angle
Spain’s defensive numbers make them deserving favourites, one goal conceded in seven games is as good as this tournament has produced, and William Hill’s 5/4 is not a stretch for a team playing with that much control. But Argentina have now won three knockout matches in a row without their best performance of the tournament, finding a way through fatigue and physical setbacks each time, and a side that keeps finding late goals under Messi is not one to dismiss at 9/4 with William Hill, or as big as 13/5 with Paddy Power and Unibet.
The draw at 2/1 with most firms, bigger at 21/10 with Unibet and BetVictor, has some pull too given how tight both semi-finals were before Spain and Argentina eventually pulled clear. This is analysis and opinion rather than a prediction, and a World Cup final is precisely the occasion where the underlying form can be overridden by a single moment from a player like Messi or Yamal.
Elsewhere today
Saturday’s third-place play-off between France and England in Miami Gardens kicks off first, and by the time Spain and Argentina walk out on Sunday it will be clear whether Mbappé has claimed the Golden Boot outright or whether Messi still has the chance to draw level or move ahead in the final itself.
