Published 24 July 2026. Analysis and predictions are our opinion,
not a guarantee of anything. 18+, please gamble responsibly.
Errol Spence Jr steps back through the ropes for the first time in three years on Sunday, taking on Tim Tszyu at Qudos Bank Arena in Sydney. Ring walks land in the early hours UK time, around 2am on Sunday morning, with the main card building across Saturday night. Both men fight above their old stomping grounds this week, up at 160lbs for a bout neither has fought at before.
Bookmakers have this close to a pick ’em with a lean toward Spence. Paddy Power goes furthest, Spence in at 5/7 with Tszyu out to 6/5, while Grosvenor makes it a near dead heat at 19/20 Spence against 9/10 Tszyu. Betfair Exchange, working off lower margins, has both men around evens.
The case for Errol Spence Jr
Spence has not fought since Terence Crawford stopped him in the ninth round in July 2023, a defeat that cost him his WBC, WBA and IBF welterweight belts and left him out of the ring for 1,092 days. He is 36 now, moving up two full weight divisions from where he built his career, and Sydney is about as far from home advantage as a fight gets. The layoff and the weight jump are the two obvious questions hanging over him. What is not in question is the résumé: a 28-1 record built on beating the best available welterweights of his generation before Crawford caught up with him, and a puncher’s chance at 160lbs that his amateur pedigree and hand speed both support.
The case for Tim Tszyu
Tszyu, the son of former junior welterweight champion Kostya Tszyu, fights in front of his own crowd with a 27-3 record and two rebuilding wins already banked in 2025 and 2026, a decision over Anthony Velazquez in December and a unanimous points win over Denis Nurja in April. Both losses that dented his reputation, to Bakhram Murtazaliev and twice to Sebastian Fundora, came against naturally bigger men at 154lbs, and 160lbs is arguably a more natural weight for his frame. A home crowd, an active 2026 and a chance to beat a name as big as Spence’s is exactly the kind of fight that resets a career.
What looks the smart angle
Three years away from live rounds is a long time for a fighter who was never blessed with elite chin depth to begin with, and Spence has never boxed a single round at 160lbs. Tszyu, by contrast, has had two fights this year to shake off ring rust and is moving up rather than down in weight, which tends to suit a come-forward boxer more than a layoff suits anybody. Paddy Power’s 6/5 on Tszyu looks like fair value given how much of Spence’s price is really a bet on the version of him from 2023 still existing at 36 and two weight classes heavier. That is opinion rather than a prediction, and a fight with this much uncertainty attached to both fighters can turn on a single clean shot either way.
Elsewhere this weekend
The chief support undercard has its own value: Stephen Fulton Jr faces Liam Wilson in a WBA super-featherweight title eliminator, while Ahmad Reda and Paul Fleming meet over ten rounds in a lightweight attraction lower down the bill. In the UK, The Hundred continues through the weekend with a full round of men’s fixtures at Trent Bridge, Headingley and the Utilita Bowl.
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