Published 28 July 2026. Updated 30 July 2026. Analysis and predictions are our opinion,
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Southern Brave host Birmingham Phoenix at the Utilita Bowl on Thursday, the women’s fixture at 3pm followed by the men’s game at 6.30pm UK time. It is the ninth match of The Hundred’s 2026 men’s competition for Chris Jordan’s side and the eighth for Donovan Ferreira’s Phoenix.
Bookmakers make it close to a pick ’em, with a slight lean toward the home side. Grosvenor, Casumo, LiveScore Bet and Virgin Bet all price Southern Brave at 4/5 and Birmingham Phoenix at evens. BoyleSports splits it further, Brave in at 5/6 and Phoenix out to 19/20.
The case for Southern Brave
Brave are winless after three matches, and each defeat has come by the smallest of margins. Welsh Fire chased down 135 for 7 with four balls to spare on the opening night. Sunrisers Leeds survived by 5 runs at Headingley, Mitchell Marsh’s innings just enough to hold off a Brave chase inside three overs of the finish. Then MI London won off the last ball on Monday, Ollie Pope sealing it with a two through backward point after Will Jacks made 54. That third defeat came despite Jamie Smith top-scoring for Brave with 49 and Marcus Stoinis taking 3 for 17 with the ball. Jordan’s squad has the personnel to turn a run of near-misses around: Stoinis and Jofra Archer give him two international-standard options at the death, Adil Rashid controls the middle overs, and Smith’s form with the bat looks in good order after back-to-back scores of substance. A side that keeps losing matches it is competitive in tends to win one eventually, and Thursday is as good a chance as any.
The case for Birmingham Phoenix
Phoenix arrive with the better recent form of the two, even accounting for a heavy defeat last time out. They beat Trent Rockets by 10 runs at Edgbaston on 24 July, posting 214 for 4 and defending it in a shootout at their own ground. Old Trafford was a different story four days ago: Jos Buttler’s 90 from 50 balls took Manchester Super Giants to 187 for 7, and Phoenix folded to 100 all out, with only Ferreira’s 23 offering resistance against Josh Tongue’s early pace and the spin of Noor Ahmed and Liam Dawson. Ferreira has led since Jacob Bethell was ruled out, and Mustafizur Rahman’s injury withdrawal has thinned the bowling options further, but the win over the Rockets shows this squad can bat through an innings when it clicks. Rehan Ahmed and Saqib Mahmood offer control with the ball, and Will Smeed and Joe Clarke give Ferreira two more players capable of setting a total on a ground that has traditionally favoured the bat.
What looks the smart angle
Southern Brave’s underlying performances have been better than 0-3 suggests. Three defeats by a combined margin of a boundary here and a wicket there, against a Phoenix side that was bowled out for 100 just two days ago, makes Grosvenor’s 4/5 on the home side look the more appealing price of the two favourites on offer. Birmingham Phoenix’s attack without Mustafizur Rahman leans harder on Rehan Ahmed and Saqib Mahmood than Ferreira would like, and Brave’s top order, with Smith in form and Stoinis and Tristan Stubbs to come, has the tools to finally turn a losing streak around at home. This is opinion rather than a prediction, and a side chasing its first win of the summer sometimes finds the extra edge that has been missing all along.
Elsewhere today
The women’s fixture between the same two sides opens the doubleheader three hours before the men’s game. Wednesday’s card saw Welsh Fire host Trent Rockets at Sophia Gardens and MI London face London Spirit at Lord’s, the last men’s action before Thursday’s game at the Utilita Bowl.
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