Published 12 September 2026. Updated 14 September 2026. Analysis and predictions are our opinion,
not a guarantee of anything. 18+, please gamble responsibly.
Leeds host Newcastle at Elland Road on Monday 14 September, kick-off 8pm UK time, to close out the fourth round of Premier League fixtures. Both sides arrive on five points from three games, both have drawn twice already, and both are unbeaten under their current manager, which is a rarer coincidence than it sounds this early in a season.
The case for Leeds
Daniel Farke’s side have not lost at Elland Road in six months, and that run matters more than the recent results suggest. Leeds have not won since back-to-back victories over Nottingham Forest on 25 August, drawing with Brentford and Brighton either side of a 6-3 Carabao Cup defeat to Chelsea, but a heavy cup loss with a weakened side is not the same evidence as a league result. Dominic Calvert-Lewin has a goal from six shots since arriving as the focal point, and Anton Stach has added a goal and two created chances in his first 270 minutes. Mateo Joseph and Joe Rodon are both out injured, with Ilia Gruev a doubt, which thins a squad that was already leaning on a short front line.
The case for Newcastle
Matthias Jaissle took over in the summer and is yet to taste defeat in the dugout, with a 1-0 Carabao Cup win over Millwall the most recent evidence that the new regime is settling in. Anthony Elanga, Yoane Wissa and Harvey Barnes give Newcastle a front three with real pace and end product, the kind of attack that travels better than most against a home side missing two defensive options. The concern is Dan Burn, William Osula and Joelinton all missing through injury, with Ewen Jaouen a doubt, which leaves Jaissle short at the back against a Leeds side unbeaten at home since the spring.
The prices
Ten UK bookmakers are compared above. Leeds are the shorter price almost everywhere, around 9/4, with Newcastle out at 17/10 to 19/10 and the draw the widest part of the market at 12/5 to 13/5. Betfred and BoyleSports go joint-top on the draw at 13/5, with William Hill, Paddy Power, Sky Bet and 888sport all at 12/5. Every price in the table clears the minimum-odds bar on all three of this site’s welcome offers, so which outcome you fancy does not narrow which offer you can use it with.
What looks the smart angle
Two sides level on points, both having drawn twice in three games, meeting at a ground where the home side has not lost since March: that is the profile of a match that stays tight. Leeds without a win in three and short at the back of midfield, against a Newcastle side that is good going forward but has lost three defenders to injury, does not obviously favour either team enough to justify Leeds as a 9/4 favourite. The draw at 13/5 with Betfred or BoyleSports is the part of this market that looks underpriced against how similar these two teams’ seasons have been so far. This is analysis and opinion, not a prediction, and a Newcastle front three of Elanga, Wissa and Barnes is more than capable of settling it with one moment of quality.
The offers, and where they line up with this match
Three welcome offers sit below this article, and on this particular match all three are usable regardless of which side of the game you back.
Ad: new William Hill customers registering with promo code R30 can bet £10 and get £30 in free bets, paid as 3 x £10 once the qualifying bet settles. The minimum odds are 1/2 (1.5), so Leeds at 9/4, the draw at up to 13/5 and Newcastle at up to 19/10 all clear it comfortably. Deposits have to be by debit card, since PayPal, Apple Pay, Skrill, Neteller and Paysafe are all excluded, and the free bets last 7 days.
Ad: new Betfred customers can bet £10 and get £50 in free bets, split as £30 in sports free bets and £20 in Bet Builder free bets, credited within 24 hours of the qualifying bet settling. The bar here is Evens (2.0) or greater, and every price in this match sits above that, Leeds included at 7/5. It is the largest of the three offers, and unlike the Tottenham v Everton game earlier this week, nothing in this fixture is too short to qualify. Debit card deposits only, 7-day expiry on the free bets.
Ad: new Virgin Bet members can bet £10 and get £20 in free bets plus 2 x £5 Bet Builder tokens. Minimum odds are 1/2 (1.5) again, so all three outcomes count here too. The free bets arrive as a pop-up notification that has to be accepted within 7 days, then used within a further 7 days, and free bet stakes are not returned on any of the three offers above.
Betfred’s £50 is the biggest package and, on this game, reachable on any outcome including the favourite. William Hill’s £30 and Virgin Bet’s £20 plus Bet Builder tokens both clear the same way. There is no outcome in this match that rules any of the three out, which is not something every fixture on this site can say.
Elsewhere this week
Monday’s game closes out round four, with Tottenham having hosted Everton on Saturday and Manchester United facing Manchester City on Sunday. Coventry City host Brighton on Sunday lunchtime, and the round after brings Brentford v Chelsea in midweek before Tottenham travel to Aston Villa the following weekend.
If Monday night’s match is the one that gets you opening an account, Betfred’s £50 across sports and Bet Builder free bets is the largest offer and works on any outcome here, with William Hill’s £30 with code R30 and Virgin Bet’s £20 plus Bet Builder tokens both clearing the same bar. New customers only, 18+, one per person. BeGambleAware.org.
Sources: Yahoo Sports, Squawka, Sportskeeda, odds snapshot from the-odds-api.com taken 12 September 2026.
