Published 22 September 2026. Updated 24 September 2026. Analysis and predictions are our opinion,
not a guarantee of anything. 18+, please gamble responsibly.
Germany and the Netherlands go again on Thursday 24 September, kicking off at 20:45 local time (19:45 UK) at the Johan Cruijff Arena in Amsterdam, and this one opens a brand new competition rather than settling an old one. It is matchday one of Group A2 in the 2026-27 Nations League, a section that also has Serbia and Greece in it, but nobody in Amsterdam this week is thinking about anyone except each other.
The rivalry needs no introduction. The 1974 World Cup final defeat still gets talked about in Dutch football as “de moeder aller nederlagen” (the mother of all defeats), and the most recent competitive meeting came in October 2024, also in the Nations League, when Germany won 1-0. What makes this one different is the dugouts. Both nations went out of the World Cup in the round of 32 this summer, both have changed manager since, and both new men take charge of a competitive match for the first time here.
The case for the Netherlands
Xavi has replaced Ronald Koeman after the Dutch lost a round-of-32 shootout to Morocco, and his first squad makes a statement straight away: Memphis Depay, the country’s all-time record scorer, is left out. The injury list is long. Frenkie de Jong, Mats Wieffer, Ian Maatsen, Matthijs de Ligt, Jerdy Schouten and Xavi Simons are all missing, and pre-match reporting has Donyell Malen and Justin Kluivert out too. That is a lot of central midfield to lose in one go for a coach whose whole reputation is built on controlling the ball through the middle. What the Dutch do have is a full house in Amsterdam, a new manager’s first night, and a rivalry that never needs extra motivation.
The case for Germany
Germany’s World Cup ended against Paraguay on penalties in the round of 32, Julian Nagelsmann left, and Jürgen Klopp has signed a four-year deal to replace him. Klopp has done things his own way from the start, naming two separate squads of 24 and 20 players for the four games in this window because, in his words, he wants to get to know as many players as possible. Seven uncapped players are in the group for this trip. The spine is familiar: Marc-André ter Stegen is confirmed as first-choice goalkeeper following Manuel Neuer’s international retirement, Joshua Kimmich captains and moves back into midfield after being used in defence under Nagelsmann, and Jamal Musiala is in the squad. Brajan Gruda withdrew with an abdominal injury, but reports have no fresh problems among the players who travelled.
What looks the smart angle
The market has moved twice since the teams were named. The first prices had this dead level, then the Netherlands went favourite, and on matchday it has drifted back towards level again. Virgin Bet’s 31/20 (2.55) is the best partner price on the Netherlands, with Betfred at 6/4 (2.50). Germany are 8/5 (2.60) at Betfred and 6/4 (2.50) at William Hill, and Betfred’s 11/4 (3.75) is still the best partner price on the draw. The Dutch lean made sense on one reading, home advantage and a fired-up crowd for Xavi’s debut. On the other reading it looked like an overreaction, and the money since suggests plenty agreed. The Dutch are without most of their first-choice midfield, and Germany arrive with their senior core fit plus a manager whose teams press hard from the first whistle. On the team news, Germany at 8/5 with Betfred still looks the more interesting side of a close book, and the draw at 11/4 is the case for anyone who thinks two new managers and two reshaped XIs cancel each other out. This is analysis and opinion, not a tip, and the confirmed line-ups an hour before kick-off matter more than anything printed here.
Elsewhere this week
The whole Nations League league phase opens across 24-29 September. Wales start away to Portugal the same evening, England host Spain at Wembley on Saturday 26 September before a trip to the Czech Republic on 29 September, and Scotland visit Slovenia on the Saturday afternoon. Poker has its own calendar entry the same week: the WPT Prime Lodge Festival opens at The Lodge Card Club in Austin, Texas on 24 September, running through to the $1,100 buy-in, $1 million guaranteed WPT Prime Lodge Championship on 8-12 October.
The offers worth checking before kick-off
Ad: Three sportsbook welcome offers are live for this one, and the prices above show why it is worth comparing before you pick one. Betfred’s bet £10, get £50 in free bets needs a qualifying bet at Evens (2.0) or bigger, and every outcome here clears it at Betfred’s own prices, including the 8/5 on Germany that is the best on the board among our partners. William Hill’s bet £10, get £30 in free bets has the lowest qualifying-odds bar of the three at 1/2 (1.5) and goes 6/4 on Germany. Virgin Bet’s welcome offer pays £20 in sportsbook free bets plus 2 x £5 Bet Builder tokens once you deposit £10+ and land a £10+ qualifying bet at odds of 1/2 or better.
If casino games are more your speed while the football is on, Virgin Bet is also carrying two live slots offers: 100 free spins on Eye of Horus for a £10 deposit and wager, and a separate 100 free spins on King Kong Cash Even Bigger Bananas 2 under the same £10 terms, both paying spin winnings out as cash with no wagering attached. William Hill runs its own 50 free spins on Mining Pots of Gold for a £10 stake, plus a 200 free spins offer on Big Bass Splash and a £100 poker playthrough bonus with six Twister tournament tickets for anyone who fancies a hand or two once the football finishes.
Whichever way this goes in Amsterdam, get your account sorted before kick-off: claim the Betfred welcome offer here and you are set to back either side, or the draw, at the best partner numbers on the board.
