Published 24 September 2026. Updated 25 September 2026. Analysis and predictions are our opinion,
not a guarantee of anything. 18+, please gamble responsibly.
England host Spain at Wembley on Saturday 26 September, kick-off 19:45 UK time and live on ITV1, in the opening match of Group A3 and Thomas Tuchel’s first full Nations League campaign. The visitors arrive as champions of the world and of Europe. Luis de la Fuente’s side beat Argentina 1-0 after extra time in July’s World Cup final, two years after beating England 2-1 in the Euro 2024 final in Berlin, and this is their first game since lifting the trophy.
England had a World Cup to remember too, if not quite the ending they wanted. Tuchel’s side reached the semi-finals and took bronze with a 6-4 win over France in the third-place play-off. This window has four games in it, with the Czech Republic away on 29 September and Croatia also to come, and the build-up has been dominated by who is missing. Cole Palmer, Declan Rice, Marcus Rashford, Tino Livramento and Kobbie Mainoo have all been ruled out with separate injuries, and Everton’s James Garner and Nottingham Forest’s Morgan Gibbs-White have been called up in their place.
The case for England
This is a team that scored six in its last competitive game, and the attack still has plenty left in it even without Palmer and Rashford. Trent Alexander-Arnold is back in the squad, which gives Tuchel a passer from deep at a time when he has lost both Rice and Mainoo from central midfield. Garner and Gibbs-White are proven Premier League players rather than stopgaps. Wembley on a Saturday night against the world champions is exactly the kind of occasion where a home side with something to prove raises its level, and England will want to show the bronze medal was no fluke.
The case for Spain
De la Fuente’s squad barely needs introducing. Rodri, Pedri, Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams are all in it, and Fermín López and Dean Huijsen are back in the group. The last meeting between these sides that mattered was the Euro 2024 final, and Spain have won three of the last five against England, with one England win and one draw. Against an England midfield missing Rice and Mainoo, a Spain side built around Rodri and Pedri controlling the ball could have long spells where England simply cannot get it back.
What looks the smart angle
Spain have shortened again since the injury news, and England have drifted. Betfred and William Hill both go 13/10 (2.30) on the visitors, the best partner price, with Virgin Bet at 6/5 (2.20). Betfred’s 2/1 (3.00) is now the best partner price on England, ahead of 19/10 (2.90) at William Hill and Virgin Bet, and Betfred’s 5/2 (3.50) is still the best partner price on the draw. Lewis Hall has joined the doubts after missing training on Wednesday. The injury news is the thing that has changed most since the fixture was first priced, and it all cuts one way: England have lost their two first-choice central midfielders, and that is the exact area where Spain win matches. On that reading, Spain at 13/10 still looks the fairer side of the book, even after the market has moved that way. The draw at 5/2 is the case for anyone who expects an England side short on midfield control to sit a little deeper and make it a tight, tactical night. This is analysis and opinion, not a prediction of the result, and Tuchel’s confirmed line-up on Saturday evening is worth checking before kick-off.
Elsewhere this week
The Nations League opens across the board this week: Scotland visit Slovenia earlier the same day, and Wales opened their own campaign with a 1-0 defeat in Portugal on 24 September. Newmarket hosts a Group 1 double on the same Saturday afternoon, the Cheveley Park Stakes and Middle Park Stakes, before England’s second fixture of the window away to the Czech Republic on 29 September.
The offers worth claiming before kick-off
Ad: Three sportsbook welcome offers are live for this one, and Betfred carries the best partner price on England and on the draw, and matches William Hill on Spain. Betfred’s bet £10, get £50 in free bets needs a qualifying bet at Evens (2.0) or bigger, and all three outcomes clear it at Betfred’s prices. William Hill’s bet £10, get £30 in free bets matches Betfred’s 13/10 on Spain and has the lowest qualifying-odds bar of the three at 1/2 (1.5). Virgin Bet’s welcome offer pays £20 in free bets plus 2 x £5 Bet Builder tokens for a £10 deposit and a £10+ bet at 1/2 or better.
If you fancy something away from the football, William Hill and Virgin Bet both run live casino welcome offers worth a look: 100 free spins on Eye of Horus, 100 free spins on King Kong Cash Even Bigger Bananas 2, both paying spin winnings as cash, and 50 free spins on Mining Pots of Gold for a £10 stake, where the spins last 24 hours and winnings are capped at £30. William Hill also has a 200 free spins offer on Big Bass Splash and a £100 poker playthrough bonus plus a pack of Twister tournament tickets.
Whichever way Wembley goes on Saturday, claim the Betfred welcome offer here to back it at the best partner price on any of the three outcomes.
