Published 26 September 2026. Analysis and predictions are our opinion,
not a guarantee of anything. 18+, please gamble responsibly.
Northern Ireland play their first home game of the window at Windsor Park on Monday 28 September, kick-off 19:45 UK time, three days after opening Group B2 away to Georgia in Tbilisi. Hungary also opened on Friday 25 September, at home to Ukraine in the Puskás Aréna, so both sides come into matchday two with one game of evidence and a four-team group that also includes Georgia and Ukraine.
Michael O’Neill named a 28-man squad for this window, up from 23 in June, with four teenagers in it, including Arsenal’s 18-year-old Ceadach O’Neill. Captain Conor Bradley is still out after knee surgery in January, and Ali McCann is missing too. Dan Ballard was expected back in the back line for the Georgia game. Hungary are without Roland Sallai and Barnabás Varga, two regulars from Marco Rossi’s recent squads.
The case for Northern Ireland
Northern Ireland’s recent defeats have mostly come against the elite. Four of their five losses in their last ten games were against Germany, Italy and France, and the other was a 91st-minute defeat in Slovakia. Against sides nearer their own level they have been hard to beat, and Windsor Park is where they are at their most awkward. A young, compact side that breaks quickly suits a home game against a Hungary team that will be expected to have more of the ball.
The case for Hungary
Hungary were a League A side until recently. They were relegated from the top tier of the last Nations League and then missed out on a World Cup play-off place after a home defeat to the Republic of Ireland, but their form since has been steady: a four-match unbeaten run with wins over Slovenia (1-0), Finland (2-1) and Kazakhstan (3-1) and a goalless draw with Greece, who beat Serbia away this week. They also drew 2-2 in Portugal. Dominik Szoboszlai is the best player on either side, whether Rossi uses him centrally or from the left, and Bournemouth’s Alex Tóth adds legs in midfield.
What looks the smart angle
Hungary are favourites, and the partner prices are tight. Betfred’s 13/10 (2.30) is the best partner price on a Hungary win, ahead of William Hill’s 5/4 (2.25) and Virgin Bet’s 6/5 (2.20). Virgin Bet’s 11/5 (3.20) is the best partner price on Northern Ireland, with Betfred and William Hill at 21/10 (3.10), and Virgin Bet and Betfred share the best partner price on the draw at 2/1 (3.00). Hungary have more proven quality and a better recent record, which is the case for the shorter price. The case against is that Northern Ireland at home have rarely been beaten by sides at Hungary’s level, and a Hungary team missing Sallai and Varga may lack a cutting edge up front. On that reading Northern Ireland at 11/5 with Virgin Bet, or the draw at 2/1, are the more interesting numbers. This is opinion and analysis on the prices as they stand, not a certainty, and Friday’s results for both sides are worth checking before kick-off.
Elsewhere this week
Georgia host Ukraine in the other Group B2 game earlier the same day, and the PDC World Grand Prix darts opens in Leicester that evening, while Wales face Denmark in Copenhagen the day before this one, on 27 September. England’s Nations League window continues with a trip to Czech Republic on 29 September, and King’s Resort in Rozvadov runs its King’s Million EPC poker festival through the same stretch, building to a €5 million Super Main Event on 30 September.
The offers worth claiming before kick-off
Ad: Virgin Bet’s welcome offer carries the best partner price on a Northern Ireland win and shares the best on the draw: £20 in free bets plus 2 x £5 Bet Builder tokens for a £10 deposit and a £10+ bet at 1/2 or better. William Hill’s bet £10, get £30 in free bets has the lowest qualifying-odds bar of the three at 1/2 (1.5). Betfred’s bet £10, get £50 in free bets has the best partner price on a Hungary win at 13/10 and shares the best on the draw, and its qualifying bet needs odds of Evens (2.0) or bigger, which all three outcomes clear at Betfred’s prices.
William Hill and Virgin Bet both have live casino offers worth a look too: 50 free spins on Mining Pots of Gold, 100 free spins on Eye of Horus, and a separate 100 free spins on King Kong Cash Even Bigger Bananas 2, all for a £10 stake. The two Virgin Bet offers pay spin winnings as cash with no cap; William Hill caps its spin winnings at £30.
Whichever way Windsor Park goes, claim the Virgin Bet welcome offer here to back it at the best partner price on the home side.
