Published 29 September 2026. Updated 1 October 2026. Analysis and predictions are our opinion,
not a guarantee of anything. 18+, please gamble responsibly.
Greece host the Netherlands at the Toumba Stadium in Thessaloniki on Thursday 1 October, kick-off 19:45 UK time, in the third round of Group A2 in the Nations League. Ivan Jovanović’s Greece have won both of their games and sit top of the group. Xavi Hernández’s Netherlands, in his first month in charge after Ronald Koeman, have a win and a draw, and Jürgen Klopp’s Germany are the side left chasing behind them.
Greece opened by coming from behind to win 2-1 in Belgrade, Anastasios Douvikas heading in the winner in stoppage time. On Sunday they went to Augsburg and beat Germany 1-0 through a Dimitrios Kourbelis strike. The Netherlands drew 1-1 with Germany on matchday one, Cody Gakpo volleying a 92nd-minute equaliser, and took their win against Serbia on Sunday. That leaves Greece on six points, the Dutch on four.
The case for Greece
Six points from Serbia and Germany is a reversal of a poor run. Before the group, Greece had gone five games without a win, with three draws and two defeats. Now they have beaten a Klopp side away from home and kept a clean sheet doing it. Vangelis Pavlidis leads the line, Christos Tzolis is in form and Douvikas has shown he can win a game off the bench. The Toumba, PAOK’s home, is a hard place for visiting sides, and a team with two wins from two will not fear a Dutch side still learning a new manager’s ideas. Georgios Vagiannidis is the one Greece name listed as a doubt in the build-up.
The case for the Netherlands
The Dutch have much the deeper squad. The XI that started against Germany had Virgil van Dijk, Micky van de Ven, Denzel Dumfries, Ryan Gravenberch and Tijjani Reijnders in it. They have gone seven games without a defeat in 90 minutes, with four wins and three draws, and have lost one of their last 22 after 90 minutes. The head-to-head is one-sided: the last two meetings, both in Euro 2024 qualifying in 2023, ended 3-0 to the Netherlands at home and 1-0 to the Netherlands in Athens.
The forward line is the problem. Brian Brobbey went off with a hamstring injury against Germany and is out of the squad, with Joshua Zirkzee called up in his place. Gakpo, the man who rescued that game, has since been ruled out injured as well. Xavi is expected to build the attack around Crysencio Summerville and Ruben van Bommel, which is a long way from the front three he would have picked a fortnight ago.
What looks the smart angle
All three of our sportsbook partners price this game. Betfred make the Netherlands 21/20 (2.05), Virgin Bet 1.98 and William Hill 20/21 (1.95), so Betfred have the best partner price on the favourites. Greece are 12/5 (3.40) at both William Hill and Virgin Bet, the best partner price on the hosts, ahead of 23/10 (3.30) at Betfred. The draw is best at Betfred at 11/4 (3.75), against 12/5 (3.40) at both Virgin Bet and William Hill. Among the books we have no deal with, Casumo go 5/2 (3.50) on Greece, the biggest price in the table, and LeoVegas, BoyleSports, Coral and Ladbrokes match Betfred’s 21/20 on the Dutch.
The Netherlands are still favourites at around even money, a touch shorter than yesterday, and that price asks you to trust a team in its first month under Xavi, now without both Gakpo and Brobbey, away at a full ground against opponents who have just won at Germany. Greece at 12/5 is the case for anyone who reads the last two results as proof this group can compete at League A level. The draw at 11/4 suits a view that neither side is fully settled. All of this is opinion on the prices as they stand, not a prediction. Confirmed line-ups will be out about an hour before kick-off.
We hold no deal with LeoVegas, BoyleSports, Coral, Ladbrokes, Casumo, Bet Victor or 888sport, which is why their prices do not link out.
Elsewhere
Wales host Norway in Cardiff on the same evening, Denmark play Portugal and Germany host Serbia. The PDC World Grand Prix second round finishes in Leicester, the King’s Million EPC Monsterstack plays its final day in Rozvadov, and the €5 million guaranteed Super Main Event there is into its starting flights.
The sportsbook offers worth a look for Thursday night
Ad: Betfred’s bet £10, get £50 in free bets fits this game neatly. Its qualifying bet has to be at Evens (2.0) or bigger, and Betfred’s price on the Netherlands is 21/20 (2.05), so a £10 bet on the favourites would qualify, as would Greece or the draw. The £50 is paid as £30 in sports free bets and £20 in Bet Builder free bets, credited within 24 hours of settlement and valid for seven days. A debit card deposit is required.
William Hill’s bet £10, get £30 in free bets has the lowest qualifying bar of the three at 1/2 (1.5). It needs promo code R30, a debit card deposit, and pays three £10 free bets that last seven days. Virgin Bet’s welcome offer pays £20 in free bets plus 2 x £5 Bet Builder tokens after a £10 deposit and a £10+ bet at 1/2 (1.5) or bigger, with 14 days to place the qualifying bet. Virgin Bet’s 1.98 on the Netherlands sits below Betfred’s 2.05, so the extra free-bet value comes with slightly less on the match itself, though Virgin Bet do share the best partner price on Greece at 12/5.
If slots are more your thing on a midweek night, Virgin Bet runs 100 free spins on Eye of Horus and 100 free spins on King Kong Cash Even Bigger Bananas 2, both paying winnings as cash with no cap. William Hill has 50 free spins on Mining Pots of Gold for a £10 stake with promo code M50, and that one is tighter: the spins expire 24 hours from issue and the most you can take out of them is £30.
However the Toumba goes, claim the Betfred welcome offer here to back it at the best partner price on the favourites.
