Published 30 September 2026. Updated 1 October 2026. Analysis and predictions are our opinion,
not a guarantee of anything. 18+, please gamble responsibly.
France host Italy at the Stade de France on Friday 2 October, kick-off 19:45 UK time, in the third round of Nations League A Group 1. France have six points from two games and lead the group. Italy have three, and are level with Belgium behind them. It is Zinedine Zidane’s France against Roberto Mancini’s Italy, and the table gives the hosts the room to treat it as a statement game rather than a must-win.
France have won both matches without conceding. They beat Türkiye 1-0 away, then won 1-0 in Brussels against Belgium, Michael Olise scoring in the 88th minute. Italy lost their opener 2-0 at home to Belgium, then went to Türkiye and won 4-1, with Alessandro Bastoni, Davide Frattesi and Kayode scoring in the first half and Esposito adding a fourth after it.
The case for France
Two clean sheets and two late-ish wins is the profile of a side that manages games well. France have also won the last five meetings with Italy, including 3-1 at home in the November 2024 Nations League.
The injury list has grown since the squad met up. Kylian Mbappé, who scored the only goal against Türkiye, limped off in that game with a knee problem, was sent back to Madrid for tests and has now left the squad, so he plays no part here. Ibrahima Konaté withdrew earlier with a collateral ligament injury in his right leg, and Leny Yoro was called up for the first time as his replacement. Against that, an Olise goal in the 88th minute in Brussels shows what France carry in the final third even when the headline name is missing.
The case for Italy
Italy’s attack looked sharp against Türkiye, four goals in one game, and a side that scores like that is rarely shut out for long. The opening defeat to Belgium was at home, and it is fair to treat it as the outlier. Federico Dimarco has withdrawn from the squad with a knee injury, which costs Mancini a wing-back, and Giacomo Raspadori has now gone back to Atalanta too after coming off at half-time in Türkiye, so he misses this game and Monday’s home match with Türkiye in Bologna. Nicolò Barella is among those who could return to the side. The argument for Italy is that they have nothing to lose, that France’s two wins were by a single goal each, and that a France attack without Mbappé has to find those goals somewhere else.
What looks the smart angle
All three of our sportsbook partners price this game. Betfred and William Hill both go 2/5 (1.40) on France and Virgin Bet 1.38, so Betfred and William Hill share the best partner price on the hosts. Betfred lead on the draw at 4/1 (5.00) against 39/10 (4.90) at Virgin Bet and 18/5 (4.60) at William Hill, and on Italy at 6/1 (7.00) against 6.40 at Virgin Bet and 5/1 (6.00) at William Hill. Among the books we do not work with, Unibet and LeoVegas go 1.42 on France, Coral and Ladbrokes go 21/4 (5.25) on the draw, and nobody in the table matches Betfred’s 6/1 on Italy.
France have shortened rather than drifted on the Mbappé news, which tells you what the market thinks of the rest of that squad. A 2/5 favourite on a ground where France have won five in a row is a fair price, and it is the sort of price that leaves little margin. If you think Italy’s attack travels, 6/1 at Betfred is the number, and it is a bigger number than it was a week ago. If you expect another one-goal France win, the price on France without a handicap does not pay much for being right. That is opinion on the prices as they stand, not a prediction. Team sheets land about an hour before kick-off.
We hold no deal with Coral, Ladbrokes, Unibet, LeoVegas, Casumo, BoyleSports or 888sport, which is why their prices do not link out.
Elsewhere
Ukraine host Northern Ireland the same evening and Belgium play Turkey. England are away to Croatia in Rijeka on Saturday, Wales host Denmark on Sunday night, and the Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe is run at ParisLongchamp that afternoon. The King’s Million EPC Super Main Event is into its starting flights at Rozvadov, with a €5 million guarantee.
The sportsbook offers worth a look for Friday night
Ad: Betfred’s bet £10, get £50 in free bets needs a qualifying bet at Evens (2.0) or bigger. France at 2/5 do not clear that, but Italy at 6/1 and the draw at 4/1 both do, and Betfred happen to be the best partner price on both of those. The £50 is paid as £30 in sports free bets and £20 in Bet Builder free bets, credited within 24 hours of settlement and valid for seven days. A debit card deposit is required.
William Hill’s bet £10, get £30 in free bets has a lower bar of 1/2 (1.5), but France at 2/5 sit below even that, so the qualifying bet would still have to be on Italy or the draw. It needs promo code R30, a debit card deposit, and pays three £10 free bets that last seven days. Virgin Bet’s welcome offer pays £20 in free bets plus 2 x £5 Bet Builder tokens after a £10 deposit and a £10+ bet at 1/2 (1.5) or bigger, with 14 days to place the qualifying bet and 7 days to accept the tokens once you have.
Away from the football, Virgin Bet runs 100 free spins on Eye of Horus and 100 free spins on King Kong Cash Even Bigger Bananas 2, both paying winnings as cash with no cap, and William Hill has 50 free spins on Mining Pots of Gold with code M50 for a £10 stake, capped at £30 and with the spins gone 24 hours after issue.
Whichever side you back, claim the Betfred welcome offer here to get the best partner price on all three outcomes.
