Published 1 October 2026. Analysis and predictions are our opinion,
not a guarantee of anything. 18+, please gamble responsibly.
England play the third game of their September and October window in Rijeka on Saturday 3 October, kick-off 17:00 UK time, against Croatia in the third round of Nations League A Group 3. The game is behind closed doors because of a UEFA sanction on Croatia, in a stadium that holds 8,279 when full. Thomas Tuchel’s squad of 27 was named for four games in this window, and this is the third.
England arrive on the back of their first win of the group. They beat Czechia 2-0 in Prague on Tuesday 29 September through Anthony Gordon and Harry Kane, against ten men for most of it after Pavel Šulc was sent off in the 23rd minute. That takes England to three points from two games and second in the group. The two sides met at the World Cup in June, and England’s record against Croatia is strong: four wins, one defeat and one draw across all meetings, with England having won the last three.
The case for England
Depth is the argument, and Prague was the evidence. Tuchel picked 27 players for a four-game window so he could rotate, and the squad has options in every line, with Dominic Calvert-Lewin, Lewis Hall, Rio Ngumoha, Jarrad Branthwaite, Myles Lewis-Skelly and Alex Scott all back in the group, alongside Trent Alexander-Arnold and Jude Bellingham. Cole Palmer, Tino Livramento, Kobbie Mainoo and Marcus Rashford all withdrew from the original selection, and two more names are carrying fitness problems: Nico O’Reilly with a muscle injury and Ezri Konsa with physical discomfort. An empty stadium also removes the one thing that usually makes a trip to Croatia harder.
The case for Croatia
Croatia are the side with less to lose against a team playing its third game in a week and coming off 90 minutes against ten men, which is not the same preparation as a proper test. A closed stadium takes away the home crowd as well, but a patient, compact game is the obvious way to slow England down. Martin Baturina and Josip Juranović have been listed as ill, and Martin Erlić as injured, so Croatia are not at full strength either.
What looks the smart angle
England have shortened since Prague. All three of our sportsbook partners price the game, and Betfred now have the best partner price on them at 9/10 (1.90), ahead of William Hill at 17/20 (1.85) and Virgin Bet at 1.81. Croatia have drifted the other way: Virgin Bet go 29/10 (3.90), Betfred 11/4 (3.75) and William Hill 13/5 (3.60). The draw is 11/4 (3.75) at Betfred, 13/5 (3.60) at Virgin Bet and 5/2 (3.50) at William Hill. Among the books we have no deal with, Casumo go 3/1 (4.00) on Croatia and Coral and Ladbrokes go 10/11 (1.91) on England, a fraction bigger than Betfred.
England as clear favourites reads as a fair reflection of a team with the deeper squad away from home in an odd setting, but the move from around 2.10 a week ago to 1.90 has been driven by a win over ten men. Croatia at 29/10 is the case for anyone who thinks that flattered England. The draw at 11/4 suits a view that an empty ground, a third game in a week and a rotated England side make for a cagey afternoon. This is opinion on the prices as they stand, not a prediction.
We hold no deal with Coral, Ladbrokes, Unibet, Casumo, BoyleSports, LeoVegas or 888sport, which is why their prices do not link out.
Elsewhere
North Macedonia host Scotland and Spain play the Czech Republic in the same group on Saturday night. France host Italy at the Stade de France the night before, Wales host Denmark on Sunday, and the Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe is run at ParisLongchamp that afternoon. The King’s Million EPC Super Main Event continues in Rozvadov.
The sportsbook offers worth a look for Saturday
Ad: Betfred’s bet £10, get £50 in free bets needs a qualifying bet at Evens (2.0) or bigger. England at 9/10 no longer clear that bar, so the qualifying bet would have to be Croatia at 11/4 or the draw at 11/4, both of which Betfred also price best among our partners. The £50 is paid as £30 in sports free bets and £20 in Bet Builder free bets, credited within 24 hours of settlement and valid for seven days, with a debit card deposit required.
Virgin Bet’s welcome offer pays £20 in free bets plus 2 x £5 Bet Builder tokens after a £10 deposit and a £10+ qualifying bet at 1/2 (1.5) or bigger, with 14 days to place it. England at 1.81 clear that comfortably, and Virgin Bet are the best partner price on Croatia if you want to take the other side. William Hill’s bet £10, get £30 in free bets needs promo code R30 and a debit card deposit, and pays three £10 free bets that last seven days. Its 1/2 (1.5) bar is cleared by all three outcomes here.
For a Saturday night away from the football, Virgin Bet runs 100 free spins on Eye of Horus and 100 free spins on King Kong Cash Even Bigger Bananas 2, both paying winnings as cash with no cap. William Hill’s 50 free spins on Mining Pots of Gold needs code M50 and a £10 stake, and is the stricter of the two: 24-hour spin expiry and a £30 cap on what you can take out.
If you back England here, the Betfred welcome offer is the one with the best partner price on them.
