Published 1 October 2026. Updated 1 October 2026. Analysis and predictions are our opinion,
not a guarantee of anything. 18+, please gamble responsibly.
Scotland go to the Toše Proeski Arena in Skopje on Saturday 3 October, kick-off 19:45 UK time, for the third round of Nations League B Group 1. Scotland have one point from two games. North Macedonia have none, and have not scored in the group. On the table it is a game between the two sides who have gone worst so far, which is exactly why it matters: the loser of this one is looking at a relegation play-off rather than a promotion push.
Sébastien Pocognoli started his time as Scotland head coach with a 0-0 draw in Ljubljana on 26 September, a result that read better than it looked at half-time. Three days later Switzerland came to Hampden and won 3-0, with Jack Hendry sent off before the 12th minute. North Macedonia’s two games were a 3-0 home defeat to the same Switzerland side and a 2-0 loss to Slovenia.
The case for Scotland
The red card is the mitigation, and it is a real one. Playing 80 minutes a man short against the group’s strongest side is not a fair test of a new manager’s ideas, and the Slovenia performance before it suggested a team that can defend an away game competently. Scotland have kept four clean sheets in their last ten matches. North Macedonia have scored nothing in this group and conceded five, which is not a defence built to punish a visiting side that plays for a 1-0. Scotland also won the last meeting between the two, 2-1 in Skopje. They are short-handed, though: Hendry is suspended after that red card, and Scott McTominay is missing the window after a minor corrective heart procedure.
The case for North Macedonia
A home crowd has not helped them yet, but the fixture profile changes here. Switzerland came to Skopje and Slovenia hosted them in Ljubljana, both with more of the ball and better players; Scotland arrive on one point, one goal and a heavy home defeat, and will not be as comfortable dictating the game. A first goal at home against a side low on confidence is a more realistic ask than anything they faced in the first two rounds. North Macedonia are also the only team in the group with nothing left to protect.
What looks the smart angle
All three of our sportsbook partners price this game and they are level on the hosts: Virgin Bet, Betfred and William Hill all go 7/2 (4.50) on North Macedonia. William Hill have the best partner price on Scotland at 3/4 (1.75), against 1.74 at Virgin Bet and 8/11 (1.73) at Betfred, while Virgin Bet lead on the draw at 3.45 against 12/5 (3.40) at Betfred and 23/10 (3.30) at William Hill. Among the books we have no deal with, BoyleSports go 15/4 (4.75) on North Macedonia, the biggest price available, and Casumo go 1.77 on Scotland.
Scotland at around 8/11 is a short price for a side that has scored once in the group and lost its last game 3-0 at home, even accounting for the sending-off. The counter is that North Macedonia have been worse and have not scored at all. The draw at 12/5 to 3.45 is the price that reflects two teams short of goals playing a game neither can afford to lose, and 7/2 about the hosts is the outright contrarian position. This is a reading of the market, not a tip, and team news will firm it up closer to kick-off.
We hold no deal with Ladbrokes, Coral, LeoVegas, Casumo, 888sport, Betway or BoyleSports, which is why their prices do not link out.
Elsewhere
England are away to Croatia in Rijeka earlier the same afternoon, behind closed doors, and Spain host the Czech Republic in the same group as them. Switzerland play Slovenia at the top of Group B1. On Sunday the Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe is run at ParisLongchamp and Wales host Denmark in Cardiff. The King’s Million EPC Super Main Event runs two more starting flights in Rozvadov.
The sportsbook offers worth a look for Saturday night
Ad: Virgin Bet’s welcome offer holds the best partner price on the draw here, and its 1.74 on Scotland is a fraction behind William Hill’s 3/4. It pays £20 in free bets plus 2 x £5 Bet Builder tokens after a £10 deposit and a £10+ qualifying bet at 1/2 (1.5) or bigger, placed within 14 days of registering. Scotland at 1.74 clear that bar, as does everything else on the coupon. You have 7 days to accept the tokens from the pop-up notification and 7 days to use them once accepted.
Betfred’s bet £10, get £50 in free bets is the largest of the three, but its qualifying bet has to be at Evens (2.0) or bigger, so Scotland at 1.73 will not do it. North Macedonia at 7/2 or the draw at 12/5 both qualify. The £50 arrives as £30 in sports free bets and £20 in Bet Builder free bets within 24 hours of settlement, valid seven days, with a debit card deposit required. William Hill’s bet £10, get £30 in free bets needs promo code R30 and a debit card deposit, sets its bar at 1/2 (1.5), and pays three £10 free bets over seven days with no cap on what they can return.
For a Saturday night that is not about Scottish football, Virgin Bet runs 100 free spins on Eye of Horus and 100 free spins on King Kong Cash Even Bigger Bananas 2, both paying spin winnings as cash with no cap. William Hill’s 50 free spins on Mining Pots of Gold needs code M50 and a £10 stake, and is the stricter of the two: the spins expire 24 hours from issue and £30 is the most you can withdraw from them.
If you fancy Scotland to steady the ship in Skopje, claim the Virgin Bet welcome offer here and take the best partner price on them.
