Published 2 October 2026. Analysis and predictions are our opinion,
not a guarantee of anything. 18+, please gamble responsibly.
Wales host Denmark at Cardiff City Stadium on Sunday 4 October, kick-off 19:45 UK time, in Nations League A Group 4. It is a second meeting in eight days. Denmark won 2-0 at the Parken on Sunday, and Craig Bellamy’s Wales have lost both of their games so far, 1-0 in Lisbon to Portugal and then in Copenhagen.
Denmark have three points from their own two games. They lost 3-2 in Norway on the opening night, with Erling Haaland scoring twice and Mikkel Damsgaard and Rasmus Højlund replying, and then beat Wales, Gustav Isaksen adding the second with a volley.
The case for Denmark
Brian Riemer’s side controlled the first meeting, and the squad is built around Christian Eriksen, Morten Hjulmand and Pierre-Emile Højbjerg in midfield, with Højlund up front. Two forwards are listed as unavailable for this window, William Osula and Kasper Dolberg, which thins the options but not the quality. They have already beaten this opponent once in the week, and Wales will be changing their back line again.
The case for Wales
Wales are at home, and the Cardiff crowd will be behind a team that has lost two games without being badly beaten. Portugal’s winner in Lisbon came off a deflection from Ben Davies, though Portugal finished with 22 shots to five for Wales. Wales come into the game with defensive selection problems: Joe Rodon was out with a hamstring injury, Ben Cabango was being checked after an issue against Portugal, and Karl Darlow has withdrawn from the squad. Harry Wilson and Jordan James are back in the group, which helps going forward.
What looks the smart angle
Two of our sportsbook partners price this game, William Hill and Virgin Bet, and Betfred had not priced it when we looked. Virgin Bet make Denmark 21/25 (1.84), the best partner price on the favourites, against 3/4 (1.75) at William Hill. Wales are 14/5 (3.80) at Virgin Bet and 5/2 (3.50) at William Hill. The draw is 4/1 at William Hill (4.00) and 11/4 (3.75) at Virgin Bet.
Denmark are favourites on the strength of the first meeting, and a price a little under 2.00 is fair for that. Wales at 14/5 is the price for anyone who thinks a home crowd and a chance to reverse a scoreline can change the picture, but a side with three defensive problems is hard to back on hope alone. This is opinion on the prices as they stand, not a prediction. Team news and the Wales back four will settle it.
We hold no deal with Paddy Power, LeoVegas or BoyleSports, which is why their prices do not link out.
Elsewhere
Croatia v England is in Rijeka the day before, and the King’s Million EPC Super Main Event is well into its starting flights at Rozvadov.
The sportsbook offers worth a look for Sunday night
Ad: Virgin Bet’s welcome offer pays £20 in free bets plus 2 x £5 Bet Builder tokens after a £10 deposit and a £10+ qualifying bet at 1/2 (1.5) or bigger, with 14 days to place it. Denmark at 21/25, Wales and the draw all clear that.
William Hill’s bet £10, get £30 in free bets needs promo code R30 and a debit card deposit, and pays three £10 free bets that last seven days. Its qualifying bar is 1/2 (1.5), which every outcome here clears. Betfred’s bet £10, get £50 in free bets is the largest headline, but its qualifying bet must be at Evens (2.0) or bigger, so Denmark at around 1.75 would not count and the bet would have to be on Wales or the draw. The £50 is £30 in sports free bets and £20 in Bet Builder free bets, credited within 24 hours of settlement and valid for seven days.
For the best partner price on Denmark, claim the Virgin Bet welcome offer here.
