Published 3 October 2026. Updated 5 October 2026. Analysis and predictions are our opinion,
not a guarantee of anything. 18+, please gamble responsibly.
France host Belgium at the Stade de France on Monday 5 October, kick-off 19:45 UK time, in the fourth round of Nations League A Group 1. It is the second meeting between the two in eight days. The first, in Brussels on 28 September, went France’s way 1-0 when Michael Olise picked the ball up on halfway in the 88th minute, held off Maxim De Cuyper and beat Senne Lammens.
Friday reshaped the group. France were held 1-1 at home by Italy, Olise scoring from a free kick before Alessandro Bastoni equalised, and Dayot Upamecano was sent off. Belgium beat Türkiye 3-0, Kevin De Bruyne scoring twice and Romelu Lukaku adding the third. That leaves France top on seven points, Belgium second on six, Italy third on four and Türkiye pointless. A Belgium win here takes them above France with two rounds left.
The case for France
Zinedine Zidane’s side are unbeaten in the group and have conceded once in three games. They have done it without needing to dominate, which is the profile of a side that manages games. They have also done it with a shrinking squad. Kylian Mbappé went back to Real Madrid with the knee injury he picked up scoring the winner in Türkiye, Ibrahima Konaté went home before the first game, Warren Zaïre-Emery withdrew with a thigh problem, and now Upamecano is suspended after Friday’s red card. Olise has scored France’s last two goals, the winner in Brussels and the free kick against Italy, and he is the argument that France still carry enough without their captain. Against Italy they had more than 65 percent of the ball and still needed a set piece to score, which is the worry.
The case for Belgium
Belgium went to Italy and won 2-0 in Mark van Bommel’s first game, held France for 88 minutes in Brussels, and then put three past Türkiye. The problem is who is missing. De Bruyne and Youri Tielemans, the captain, are both suspended after picking up a second booking of the campaign, so the two players who ran Friday’s win are out. Jérémy Doku is injured, Thibaut Courtois is absent by agreement, and Leandro Trossard is carrying a heel problem after returning against Türkiye. Mika Godts, who scored in the win in Italy, is expected to start. A France side without Mbappé or Upamecano has fewer certainties at both ends, and Belgium have already shown they can make this fixture tight.
What looks the smart angle
All three of our sportsbook partners now price the game. Betfred are the best partner price on France at 1/2 (1.50), against 9/20 (1.44) at William Hill and 3/7 (1.42) at Virgin Bet. Virgin Bet are the best partner price on the draw at 37/10 (4.70), with Betfred at 18/5 (4.60) and William Hill at 10/3 (4.33). Betfred and Virgin Bet both go 5/1 (6.00) on Belgium, against 9/2 (5.50) at William Hill. Among the books we have no deal with, Unibet, Betway, Bet Victor and BoyleSports go 15/4 (4.75) on the draw, the biggest in the table.
The suspensions cut both ways, and that is reflected in a market that has barely moved since last week. France’s wins in this group have all been by one goal, and they drew the last game at home. That makes 1/2 a short price for a team whose results have been narrow. Belgium at 5/1 without De Bruyne and Tielemans is a harder case to make than it was on Friday morning. The draw at 37/10 is the middle ground in a fixture that has already produced one tight 90 minutes, between two sides each missing a spine player. This is opinion on the prices as they stood on Monday morning, not a prediction, and line-ups arrive about an hour before kick-off.
We hold no deal with Unibet, LeoVegas, Betway, Bet Victor, Paddy Power, BoyleSports or 888sport, which is why their prices do not link out.
Elsewhere
Italy host Türkiye in Bologna the same evening, and Northern Ireland are at home to Georgia. On Tuesday England close their window at home to Czechia at Wembley after a 7-0 win in Rijeka, and Croatia host Spain. The Shanghai Masters tennis starts on Wednesday, and the Premier League returns on Saturday with Manchester United against Tottenham.
The sportsbook offers worth a look for Monday night
Ad: Betfred’s bet £10, get £50 in free bets lines up best with this game, because Betfred hold the best partner price on France and share the best on Belgium. The qualifying bet has to be at Evens (2.0) or bigger, so France at 1/2 will not do it, but Belgium at 5/1 or the draw at 18/5 both clear the bar. The £50 is paid as £30 in sports free bets and £20 in Bet Builder free bets within 24 hours of settlement, valid seven days, and the deposit has to be made with a debit card.
Virgin Bet’s welcome offer has the best partner price on the draw and pays £20 in free bets plus 2 x £5 Bet Builder tokens after a £10 deposit and a £10+ bet at 1/2 (1.5) or bigger, with 14 days to place it. Virgin Bet’s France price of 3/7 sits under that bar, so the qualifying bet would be the draw at 37/10 or Belgium at 5/1. William Hill’s bet £10, get £30 in free bets also sets the bar at 1/2, and its 9/20 on France falls just short too. It needs promo code R30 and pays three £10 free bets that last seven days, with PayPal, Skrill, NETELLER, Apple Pay and several other deposit methods excluded.
For a Monday night away from the football, Virgin Bet runs 100 free spins on Eye of Horus and 100 free spins on King Kong Cash Even Bigger Bananas 2, both paying winnings as cash with no cap. William Hill’s 50 free spins on Mining Pots of Gold needs code M50 and a £10 stake, and it is the tighter deal: the spins are gone 24 hours after issue and £30 is the most you can take out.
If you think a depleted Belgium can still take something from Paris, claim the Betfred welcome offer here and take the best partner price on the visitors.
