Published 7 October 2026. Updated 8 October 2026. Analysis and predictions are our opinion,
not a guarantee of anything. 18+, please gamble responsibly.
South Africa and Australia start the first of three Tests at Kingsmead in Durban on Friday 9 October, with play due to begin at 9.30am local time, 8.30am UK time. It is their first Test meeting since South Africa beat Australia in the 2025 World Test Championship final at Lord’s, and Australia’s first Test in South Africa since the 2018 tour. The series counts towards the 2025-27 World Test Championship. The second Test is at St George’s Park in Gqeberha from 18 October and the third at Newlands in Cape Town from 27 October.
The one-day series that opened the tour went South Africa’s way 2-1. They won by 67 runs at Kingsmead, with Matthew Breetzke making 112 and Keshav Maharaj taking 4 for 20, then by 32 runs at the Wanderers behind 142 from David Miller. Australia took the third in Potchefstroom by 45 runs on the DLS method.
The case for South Africa
They are the world Test champions, they are at home, and Temba Bavuma’s 18-man preliminary squad has two spinners in Maharaj and Simon Harmer for a ground where Maharaj has just taken four cheap wickets in the ODI. Marco Jansen, Gerald Coetzee, Corbin Bosch, Wiaan Mulder and Dane Paterson give them seam options, and Aiden Markram, Tony de Zorzi, Ryan Rickelton and Tristan Stubbs make up a top order that has had a recent look at this attack.
The big question is Kagiso Rabada. He took nine wickets in the Lord’s final and was South Africa’s leading bowler in the 2018 home series against Australia, but he has not played since the IPL in May because of a right hamstring injury. South Africa named him in the extended squad, and he bowled on both days of the two-day intra-squad game in Durban on Sunday 4 and Monday 5 October and came through it without problems. The team management said they would leave the final call as late as possible. Anrich Nortje is in the squad too, despite not having played a Test since March 2023 after a back stress fracture. Marques Ackerman is uncapped.
The case for Australia
Pat Cummins brings almost the whole Test machine: Mitchell Starc, Josh Hazlewood, Scott Boland and Nathan Lyon in the attack, Steve Smith, Marnus Labuschagne, Travis Head and Cameron Green in the batting, Alex Carey behind the stumps. Carey made 74 in the ODI win in Potchefstroom. Only five of this squad were on the 2018 tour, which ended in a 3-1 series defeat, so the scars of that trip belong to very few of them. The bookmakers we checked mostly have Australia as favourites, and on paper the depth of their pace attack is the reason.
What looks the smart angle
Virgin Bet are still the only one of our partners pricing this Test, and on Thursday morning they had the two sides dead level: 11/10 (2.10) South Africa, 11/10 (2.10) Australia, and 17/2 (9.50) the draw. The rest of the market has moved the same way. South Africa are 11/10 at Paddy Power, Coral, Ladbrokes and Grosvenor, and no book in the table now goes bigger. Grosvenor match Virgin Bet’s 11/10 on Australia, the joint-best away price, with most others at Evens (2.00). 888sport offer 11/1 (12.00) on the draw, the biggest in the table.
Our partner can no longer split them, though most books still have Australia a fraction shorter. If you think the visitors’ attack is the difference, Virgin Bet’s 11/10 on Australia is the joint-best price in the table. If you think the world champions at home with Maharaj and Harmer are being underrated, the same 11/10 is the top price on them too, and Virgin Bet have it. The draw at 17/2 to 11/1 depends on the weather and the pitch, and modern Tests that go five days without a result are rare. All of this is opinion on the prices as they stood on Thursday morning, not a prediction. Rabada came through the intra-squad game, but South Africa had said they would leave the call on him as late as possible, and the team sheet could still move the market before the toss.
We hold no deal with BoyleSports, Paddy Power, Coral, Ladbrokes, Betway, Bet Victor, Betano, Grosvenor or 888sport, which is why their prices do not link out. Betfred and William Hill had not priced the match when we checked.
Elsewhere
The Shanghai Masters tennis is in its third day. The Premier League returns on Saturday with Manchester United against Tottenham, and Liverpool host Manchester City at Anfield on Sunday. India play West Indies in a T20 international earlier in the week.
The sportsbook offers for a five-day Test
Ad: Virgin Bet’s welcome offer is the one that fits this Test best, because Virgin Bet are the partner pricing it and their 11/10 on South Africa and 11/10 on Australia both clear the 1/2 (1.5) qualifying bar. A £10 deposit and a £10+ bet pays £20 in free bets plus 2 x £5 Bet Builder tokens, and you have 14 days from registering to place the qualifying bet, which covers the whole Test and most of the second one. You then have seven days to accept the free bets and seven more to use them. The Bet Builder tokens need a single selection at Evens or bigger.
Betfred’s bet £10, get £50 in free bets is the biggest package, paying £30 in sports free bets and £20 in Bet Builder free bets after a first bet of £10+ at Evens (2.0) or bigger. Betfred had no price on this Test when we checked, so the qualifying bet would go on another sport, and the deposit has to be by debit card. William Hill’s bet £10, get £30 in free bets needs promo code R30 and a £10 bet at 1/2 or bigger on any sports market, paying three £10 free bets that last seven days. PayPal, Skrill, NETELLER, Apple Pay and several other deposit methods are excluded.
Test cricket has long breaks for lunch, tea and rain. For those, Virgin Bet runs 100 free spins on Eye of Horus and 100 free spins on King Kong Cash Even Bigger Bananas 2, both paying winnings as cash with no cap. William Hill’s 50 free spins on Mining Pots of Gold needs code M50 and a £10 stake, and the terms are tighter: 24 hours to use the spins and a £30 cap on winnings.
If you fancy Australia to land the first blow of the series, claim the Virgin Bet welcome offer here and take the joint-best price in the table on either side.
