Published 13 October 2026. Analysis and predictions are our opinion,
not a guarantee of anything. 18+, please gamble responsibly.
Benfica host Celtic at the Estádio da Luz on Thursday 15 October, kick-off 8pm UK time. It is matchday 2 of the Europa League league phase, and the two clubs come into it from opposite ends of matchday 1. Benfica won 2-0 away to AC Milan. Celtic lost 3-1 at home to Ferencváros.
The case for Benfica
Marco Silva’s side went to San Siro on 16 September and won 2-0, with goals from Dodi Lukébakio and Jakub Kamiński either side of half-time. It was Benfica’s first win over Milan at the seventh attempt, and it came against a Milan side coached by Ruben Amorim. Domestically they are second in the Primeira Liga with 16 points from seven games: five wins, a 2-2 draw on the opening day and a 3-1 defeat to Porto in their last league game before the international break. Vangelis Pavlidis has eight league goals and 14 in all competitions.
Benfica score freely at home. The league run includes a 7-0 win over Casa Pia and a 4-0 win over Moreirense. That is the profile the market is pricing.
The case for Celtic
Martin O’Neill’s side are top of the Scottish Premiership with 21 points from eight games, seven wins and one defeat, which was a 1-0 loss to Rangers. They kept that lead at the weekend with a 2-0 win at Motherwell, with Camilo Durán scoring after nine minutes and Benjamin Nygren after 58. It was O’Neill’s 250th win as Celtic manager. Rangers are two points behind on 19. The problem is Europe. Ferencváros won 3-1 at Celtic Park on 17 September, scoring twice either side of half-time after Mika Baur had equalised, and Celtic go into matchday 2 with no points.
Away from home in Portugal against a side in this form is a hard place to fix that. The most useful thing for Celtic is that the league phase runs to eight games, so a point in Lisbon would still be a good result. Marseille come to Celtic Park later in the phase.
What looks the smart angle
Betfred have the best partner prices across the board: 1/4 (1.25) on Benfica, 5/1 (6.00) on the draw and 10/1 (11.00) on Celtic. Virgin Bet match the 10/1 on Celtic and go 24/5 (5.80) on the draw, with Benfica at 1.21, about 1/5. William Hill match Betfred on Benfica at 1/4 and go 9/1 (10.00) on Celtic and 24/5 on the draw. Among books we have no deal with, Casumo go 11/1 (12.00) on Celtic, the biggest in the table, and Coral go 11/2 (6.50) on the draw.
Benfica at 1/4 is a short price but a fair reflection of a side that won at Milan, against a Celtic side that lost at home to Ferencváros. The case for Celtic at 10/1 is a team that is winning almost every week in Scotland and only needs one good night. The draw at 5/1 is the price we find more interesting than either, because Celtic under O’Neill are a side that can defend a point away from home when they have to. That is opinion on the prices as they stood on Tuesday 13 October, not a prediction, and team news will move this market before kick-off.
We hold no deal with Casumo, Coral, Grosvenor, Paddy Power, Ladbrokes, Sky Bet or 888sport, which is why their prices do not link out.
Elsewhere
Crystal Palace are at Lyon and Sunderland at Torreense earlier on Thursday at 5.45pm. Bournemouth host Sturm Graz at 8pm, and Celta Vigo play Juventus. The Champions League round runs on Tuesday and Wednesday, with Manchester City hosting Paris Saint-Germain on Wednesday night.
The sportsbook offers for a Thursday night in Lisbon
This game is a useful test of qualifying odds, because the favourite is too short for every partner’s offer.
Ad: Virgin Bet’s welcome offer has the joint-best partner price on Celtic. Deposit £10, then within 14 days of registering place a £10+ cash bet at 1/2 (1.5) or bigger. Benfica at 1/5 do not clear that bar, but Celtic at 10/1 and the draw at 5/1 do. You get 2 x £10 sportsbook free bets and 2 x £5 Bet Builder tokens, with seven days to accept them and seven to use them. The Bet Builder tokens need a single selection at Evens or bigger.
Betfred’s bet £10, get £50 in free bets is the largest package, has the best partner price on the draw and matches Virgin Bet on Celtic. The first bet must be £10 or more at Evens (2.0) or bigger and settle within seven days, so Benfica at 1/4 will not trigger it. You get £30 in sports free bets and £20 in Bet Builder free bets within 24 hours of settlement, valid seven days, and the deposit has to be by debit card.
William Hill’s bet £10, get £30 in free bets also needs a qualifying single at 1/2 or bigger, so the Benfica price here does not qualify either. Register with promo code R30, deposit £10 or more and place a £10 single. Three £10 free bets follow once it settles, valid seven days and to be used in full. PayPal, Skrill, NETELLER, Apple Pay and several other deposit methods are excluded.
For the evening before the game, Virgin Bet runs 100 free spins on Eye of Horus and 100 free spins on King Kong Cash Even Bigger Bananas 2, both paying winnings as cash with no cap. William Hill’s 50 free spins on Mining Pots of Gold needs code M50 and a £10 stake, with 24 hours to use the spins and a £30 cap on winnings.
If you think Celtic can take something from Lisbon, claim the Betfred welcome offer here and take the best partner price on the draw. Bet only what you can afford to lose.
