Published 26 October 2026. Analysis and predictions are our opinion,
not a guarantee of anything. 18+, please gamble responsibly.
Liverpool host Chelsea in the Carabao Cup fourth round on Wednesday 28 October, kick-off 8pm UK time at Anfield, live on Sky Sports and ITV. It is the tie of the round. Two of the top five in the Premier League meet four days after very different weekends, and the winner goes into the quarter-final draw.
This is also a fixture with recent League Cup history. Liverpool beat Chelsea in the 2022 final on penalties and again in the 2024 final after extra time.
The case for Liverpool
Andoni Iraola’s side arrive on four straight wins in all competitions, and eight wins from their last ten since the start of September. The latest was a 2-0 win over Brighton at Anfield on Sunday, Iraola’s first home league win as Liverpool head coach. Pascal Gross turned Florian Wirtz’s shot into his own net on 17 minutes, and Alexander Isak made it two four minutes later from Bradley Barcola’s cut-back. Liverpool are fourth on 15 points from eight games.
They reached this round by beating Tottenham 3-1, with goals from Alexis Mac Allister, Cody Gakpo and Dominik Szoboszlai.
The worry is Wirtz. He came off after 64 minutes against Brighton with an ankle injury. Wirtz said he thought it would “be alright”, and Iraola said the player had twisted it and the club still needed to check how bad it was. With Arsenal at Anfield on Sunday, there is no reason to risk him here.
The case for Chelsea
Xabi Alonso’s side come in off their worst result of the season. Tottenham won 2-0 at Stamford Bridge on Saturday, Alonso’s first home defeat as Chelsea coach. Goalkeeper Mike Penders punched a corner into his own net on 77 minutes, Mathys Tel added the second on 87, and Cole Palmer was sent off in between for a second booking.
That red card is the big team news for this tie. Suspensions from a Premier League red card carry over into domestic cups, and this is Chelsea’s next domestic game, so Palmer serves his one-match ban here and is back for Manchester United on Saturday. Chelsea were also without Joao Pedro on Saturday, and Alonso started without a recognised striker.
There are reasons not to write Chelsea off. They have scored 17 league goals in eight games, more than Liverpool’s 11, and they got here by beating Luton Town and Leeds United. The weakness is defending set pieces: Sky Sports counted eight conceded from set plays in the league, double any other side.
What looks the smart angle
William Hill have the best partner prices on both teams: 11/8 (2.38) on Liverpool and 8/5 (2.60) on Chelsea. Virgin Bet are a shade bigger on the draw at 53/20 (3.65) against William Hill’s 13/5 (3.60). Among books we have no deal with, Unibet and BoyleSports go 7/5 (2.40) on Liverpool, and Coral and Ladbrokes have the best draw price at 29/10 (3.90).
One rule matters more than usual here. Carabao Cup ties before the semi-finals go straight to penalties if level after 90 minutes, with no extra time, and the match result market settles on the 90 minutes. So the draw is a real outcome to price, and both managers have a league game four days later.
Our view is that 11/8 about Liverpool is fair rather than generous. They are the in-form side and at home, but they may rotate with Arsenal coming, and Chelsea have scored plenty. The draw at 29/10 with Coral, or 53/20 with Virgin Bet among our partners, is the price we would look at: two changed sides, a cup tie with penalties waiting, and a Chelsea team missing its most creative player. That is opinion on the prices as they stood on Monday 26 October, not a prediction, and team news on the night will move the market.
We hold no deal with Coral, Ladbrokes, Unibet, BoyleSports, Paddy Power, Sky Bet, 888sport or Bet Victor, which is why their prices do not link out. Betfred are a partner but were not pricing this tie in our feed.
Elsewhere
Arsenal go to League Two Fleetwood Town on Tuesday night, and Everton host Newcastle on Thursday. Manchester City host Brighton the same Wednesday evening. The weekend has Chelsea v Manchester United on Saturday lunchtime, the Breeders’ Cup at Keeneland on Friday and Saturday, and Liverpool v Arsenal on Sunday afternoon.
The sportsbook offers for a cup night at Anfield
Every outcome in this tie is priced above all three partners’ qualifying minimums, so none of the offers rules out a particular side.
Ad: William Hill’s bet £10, get £30 in free bets carries the best partner price on both teams. Register with promo code R30, deposit £10 or more and place a £10 single from your main balance at 1/2 or bigger on any sports market. Three £10 free bets follow once it settles, valid for seven days and to be used in full. PayPal, Skrill, NETELLER, Apple Pay and several other deposit methods are excluded.
Virgin Bet’s welcome offer has the best partner price on the draw. It needs a £10 deposit and a £10+ cash bet at 1/2 (1.5) or bigger within 14 days of registering. You get 2 x £10 sportsbook free bets and 2 x £5 Bet Builder tokens, with seven days to accept them from the pop-up and seven to use them. The Bet Builder tokens need a single selection at Evens or bigger.
Betfred’s bet £10, get £50 in free bets is the largest package. Its first bet must be £10 or more at Evens (2.0) or bigger and settle within seven days, and every outcome here clears that at the prices above. You get £30 in sports free bets and £20 in Bet Builder free bets within 24 hours of settlement, valid seven days. The deposit has to be by debit card.
For the evening before kick-off, William Hill’s 50 free spins on Mining Pots of Gold needs code M50 and a £10 stake, with 24 hours to use the spins and a £30 cap on winnings. Virgin Bet’s 100 free spins on Eye of Horus and 100 free spins on King Kong Cash Even Bigger Bananas 2 both pay winnings as cash with no cap.
If you fancy Liverpool to keep the run going, claim the William Hill welcome offer here and take 11/8. If you side with a level 90 minutes, Virgin Bet’s 53/20 is the best partner draw price. Any view here is opinion, not a tip. Bet only what you can afford to lose.
