Published 27 October 2026. Analysis and predictions are our opinion,
not a guarantee of anything. 18+, please gamble responsibly.
Everton host Newcastle United in the Carabao Cup fourth round on Thursday 29 October, kick-off 7.45pm UK time at the Hill Dickinson Stadium, live on Sky Sports+. The winner reaches the quarter-finals. Then the two sides do it again: Everton travel to St James’ Park in the Premier League on Monday 2 November, four days later.
Newcastle have been given 7,732 tickets, close to 15% of the new stadium’s 52,679 capacity, so this will not feel like a low-key cup night.
The case for Everton
David Moyes’s side are 11th in the league on 10 points from eight games: two wins, four draws and two defeats, with eight goals scored and nine conceded. The two defeats have just come back to back. They lost 2-0 to Chelsea, then 2-0 at Arsenal on Saturday, when Ezri Konsa scored after seven minutes and Gabriel headed the second on 68. Thierno Barry had the best Everton chance late in the first half and did not take it.
Everton were without Jarrad Branthwaite, who was in concussion protocol, and Jack Grealish, who was ill, at the Emirates. Both are worth checking on before Thursday, because Branthwaite is the centre of the defence and Grealish is the player most likely to create something against a deep block.
Everton reached this round by beating Wolves 1-0. The case for them is the venue, the crowd, and a record of being hard to beat: four draws in eight league games is the profile of a side that keeps scores close.
The case for Newcastle
Matthias Jaissle, appointed on 5 August after Eddie Howe resigned, has Newcastle on 11 points, one more than Everton, after a 2-0 win at Crystal Palace on Sunday. Jaissle made five changes, bringing in Dan Burn, Fabian Schär, Amar Dedić, Jacob Murphy and Will Osula. Osula scored two minutes into the second half from Murphy’s cross, and Harvey Barnes added the second on 58 minutes.
It was not a dominant win. Palace had 17 shots to Newcastle’s 10 and 52% of the ball. But it was a clean sheet away from home, and Jaissle showed he is willing to rotate, which matters in a week with two games against the same opponent. Newcastle beat Millwall 1-0 in the last round, Joe Willock scoring a late winner.
What looks the smart angle
Virgin Bet have the best partner price on Everton at 5/4 (2.23), against William Hill’s 6/5 (2.20). William Hill are bigger on Newcastle at 2/1 (3.00) against Virgin Bet’s 37/20 (2.85), and the two partners are level on the draw at 9/4 (3.25). Among books we have no deal with, Coral and Ladbrokes go 5/4 (2.25) on Everton, Unibet are best on Newcastle at 21/10 (3.10), and Coral, Ladbrokes, Unibet and Paddy Power go 5/2 (3.50) on the draw.
The market has Everton as narrow favourites, which is about the home advantage more than the league table. These sides are separated by one point. Remember that the match result market settles on 90 minutes, and a level score goes straight to penalties with no extra time.
As opinion: Newcastle at 2/1 with William Hill looks the better of the two team prices. They just kept a clean sheet with a rotated side, Everton have lost two in a row without scoring, and Grealish may still not be fit. The draw at 5/2 with the non-partner books is a fair alternative for two sides who know they meet again on Monday. That is opinion on the prices as they stood on Monday 26 October, not a prediction, and team news will move them.
We hold no deal with Coral, Ladbrokes, Unibet, BoyleSports, Paddy Power, Sky Bet, 888sport or Bet Victor, which is why their prices do not link out. Betfred are a partner but were not pricing this tie in our feed.
Elsewhere
Liverpool v Chelsea is the night before at Anfield. The Breeders’ Cup starts at Keeneland on Friday, and on Saturday Chelsea host Manchester United at lunchtime and the Charlie Hall Chase is run at Wetherby. Liverpool v Arsenal is on Sunday, and Newcastle v Everton follows on Monday night.
The sportsbook offers for a Thursday cup tie
All three outcomes here are priced at 9/4 or bigger with every partner, so they clear every partner’s qualifying minimum.
Ad: Virgin Bet’s welcome offer has the best partner price on Everton. It needs a £10 deposit and a £10+ cash bet at 1/2 (1.5) or bigger within 14 days of registering, which covers this tie and Monday’s league meeting. You get 2 x £10 sportsbook free bets and 2 x £5 Bet Builder tokens, with seven days to accept them from the pop-up and seven to use them.
William Hill’s bet £10, get £30 in free bets has the best partner price on Newcastle. Register with promo code R30, deposit £10 or more and place a £10 single from your main balance at 1/2 or bigger. Three £10 free bets follow once it settles, valid for seven days and to be used in full. PayPal, Skrill, NETELLER, Apple Pay and several other deposit methods are excluded.
Betfred’s bet £10, get £50 in free bets is the largest package. Its first bet must be £10 or more at Evens (2.0) or bigger and settle within seven days. You get £30 in sports free bets and £20 in Bet Builder free bets within 24 hours of settlement, valid seven days. The deposit has to be by debit card.
Virgin Bet also run 100 free spins on Eye of Horus and 100 free spins on King Kong Cash Even Bigger Bananas 2, both paying winnings as cash with no cap. William Hill’s 50 free spins on Mining Pots of Gold needs code M50 and a £10 stake, with 24 hours to use the spins and a £30 cap on winnings.
If you lean towards the home side, claim the Virgin Bet welcome offer here and take 5/4. If you side with Newcastle, William Hill’s 2/1 is the best partner price. Any view here is opinion, not a tip. Bet only what you can afford to lose.
