Published 2 October 2026. Analysis and views here are our opinion,
not a guarantee of anything. 18+, please gamble responsibly.
The Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe is run at ParisLongchamp on Sunday 4 October, over 2,400 metres, with the supporting cards spread across the Saturday and the Sunday. It is the race that settles the European middle-distance season, and this year it has a defending champion trying to do something only two other colts have managed in the modern era: win it twice.
That colt is Daryz, a four-year-old trained by Francis-Henri Graffard and carrying the Aga Khan Studs silks. He won the 2025 Arc by a head from Minnie Hauk, and both of them are back.
Daryz and the case for the favourite
Daryz opened this season with two Group 1 wins at Longchamp, the Prix Ganay and the Prix Aga Khan IV, then went to Royal Ascot and finished third to Ombudsman in the Prince of Wales’s Stakes over the shorter trip. His warm-up for this was the Group 2 Prix Foy over the Arc course and distance on 6 September, and it was about as straightforward as these things get: Mickaël Barzalona held him up in second behind Bay City Roller, asked him to go at the 250-metre marker and won by a length and a half as the odds-on favourite.
That was part of a clean sweep for the Aga Khan Studs on Arc Trials day. Varandir took the Prix Niel and Erdenali the Prix du Moulin de Longchamp on the same card. Varandir is in this field too, at 12/1 with William Hill.
The rest of the sixteen
Minnie Hauk, trained by Aidan O’Brien, is the one with the strongest claim on past evidence, having gone down by a head twelve months ago, and she is a 20/1 chance in the William Hill book. The British challenge is led by Andrew Balding’s Kalpana at 7/1 and William Haggas’s Maltese Cross at 5/1, with Maltese Cross the second favourite. Diamond Necklace and Thundering On are both 9/1, and Bay City Roller, who set the pace for Daryz in the Foy, is 25/1.
What looks the smart angle
Daryz at 13/8 with William Hill is a shorter price than a sixteen-runner Arc usually throws up, and the market is paying for the course-and-distance win in the Foy as much as for last year’s result. The case against him is history: back-to-back Arc wins by a colt are rare for a reason, and a 2,400-metre Group 1 in October is the sort of race where the run of the ground and a bad draw undo good horses.
Maltese Cross at 5/1 is the shortest of the British runners and the one the market has moved for. Minnie Hauk at 20/1 is the price that looks out of step with the form book, given she was a head off winning this race last year, and she is the obvious each-way angle for anyone who thinks a year’s improvement counts for something. Varandir at 12/1 already has a Longchamp Group 1 trial win this autumn. All of that is opinion on prices that were taken on 30 September, not a tip, and an ante-post market this far out moves on declarations, the going and the draw.
Elsewhere this weekend
Wales host Denmark in Cardiff on Sunday night, England played Croatia in Rijeka on Saturday afternoon and North Macedonia hosted Scotland in Skopje. The PDC World Grand Prix reaches its final in Leicester on Sunday, and the King’s Million EPC Super Main Event plays its last starting flight in Rozvadov before Day 2.
The offers worth a look for Arc day
Ad: William Hill’s bet £10, get £30 in free bets is the natural fit here, since the prices above are theirs. New customers register with promo code R30, deposit £10 or more by debit card, then place a £10 single at 1/2 (1.5) or bigger on any sports market. Every runner in this race clears that bar, including Daryz at 13/8. The reward is three £10 free bets, credited after the qualifying bet settles and valid for seven days. The free bet stake is not returned with any winnings, which matters more on a 20/1 shot than a 13/8 one. PayPal, Apple Pay, Skrill, Neteller, Paysafe and several other deposit methods are excluded.
Betfred’s bet £10, get £50 in free bets is the bigger offer and its qualifying bet has to be at Evens (2.0) or bigger, which every horse in this field comfortably clears. It pays £30 in sports free bets and £20 in Bet Builder free bets within 24 hours of settlement, valid for seven days, with a debit card deposit required. Virgin Bet’s welcome offer pays £20 in free bets plus 2 x £5 Bet Builder tokens for a £10 deposit and a £10+ bet at 1/2 (1.5) or bigger placed within 14 days, though the 2 x £5 tokens are Bet Builder only, which is football rather than racing.
If the racing is not your Sunday, Virgin Bet runs 100 free spins on Eye of Horus and 100 free spins on King Kong Cash Even Bigger Bananas 2, both paying winnings as cash with no cap, and William Hill’s 50 free spins on Mining Pots of Gold needs code M50 and a £10 stake, with the spins gone 24 hours after issue and winnings capped at £30.
Analysis here is opinion, not advice, and an ante-post price is a bet on a horse that may not run. If you want to take one of the prices above on the day, claim the William Hill welcome offer here.
